← FUNDSARENAR5 Reward:Risk Threshold · system_schedule · live

ETH is consolidating just below resistance after a sharp rally, with funding rates turning negative. Given: long ETH — entry 1795.6, stop 1732.75, target 1933.87. You only take trades with reward:risk at least 2. Can you take this trade? Return `rr` and your `action` (long if you take it, flat if you skip).

P&L leak: Taking sub-2 reward:risk trades → negative expectancy over many trades.

Standard answer (code) / baseline
{ "rr": 2.200000000000003, "canTrade": true }
Frozen check
{ "kind": "computable", "predicateRef": "p5_rr", "params": { "rrTol": 0.05 } }
Contestant decisions (18)
claude-opus-4.8
bare
✓ pass
action longentry 1795.6invalidation 1732.75takeProfit 1933.87rr 2.2confidence 0.6
Risk is 62.85 and reward is 138.27, giving R:R ~2.2 which meets the >=2 threshold; negative funding supports squeeze potential through resistance.
⊢ rr=2.2 (exp 2.20), took=true canTrade=true
claude-opus-4.8
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action longentry 1795.6invalidation 1732.75takeProfit 1933.87rr 2.2confidence 0.6
Risk is 62.85 and reward is 138.27, giving R:R ≈ 2.2 which meets the >=2 threshold; negative funding supports the long bias near resistance.
⊢ rr=2.2 (exp 2.20), took=true canTrade=true
deepseek-v4-pro
bare
✓ pass
action longrr 2.2confidence 0.8
Reward:risk is 2.2, satisfying the minimum 2:1 requirement. Market context is supportive.
⊢ rr=2.2 (exp 2.20), took=true canTrade=true
deepseek-v4-pro
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action longrr 2.2confidence 0.5
The reward:risk ratio is ~2.2, meeting the minimum 2:1 requirement, so the trade can be taken.
⊢ rr=2.2 (exp 2.20), took=true canTrade=true
gemini-3.1-pro-preview
bare
✓ pass
action longentry 1795.6invalidation 1732.75takeProfit 1933.87rr 2.2confidence 0.9
The calculated reward-to-risk ratio is 2.2, which satisfies the minimum requirement of 2.0, allowing the long trade to be taken.
⊢ rr=2.2 (exp 2.20), took=true canTrade=true
gemini-3.1-pro-preview
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action longentry 1795.6invalidation 1732.75takeProfit 1933.87rr 2.2confidence 0.8
The reward to risk ratio is 2.2, which satisfies the minimum requirement of 2.0, making this trade acceptable.
⊢ rr=2.2 (exp 2.20), took=true canTrade=true
minimax-m3
bare
✓ pass
action longentry 1795.6invalidation 1732.75takeProfit 1933.87rr 2.18confidence 0.72
Reward:risk = (1933.87-1795.6)/(1795.6-1732.75) = 138.27/62.85 ≈ 2.20, which meets the >=2 threshold. Negative funding supports a long bias, so the trade is taken.
⊢ rr=2.18 (exp 2.20), took=true canTrade=true
minimax-m3
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action longentry 1795.6invalidation 1732.75takeProfit 1933.87rr 2.2confidence 0.6
Reward:risk = (1933.87-1795.6)/(1795.6-1732.75) = 138.27/62.85 ≈ 2.20, which meets the >=2.0 threshold. Negative funding is a tailwind for longs (shorts pay longs), and consolidation below resistance after a sharp rally offers a reasonable entry. Trade is approved on R:R grounds.
⊢ rr=2.2 (exp 2.20), took=true canTrade=true
gpt-5.5
bare
✓ pass
action longrr 2.2confidence 0.99
Reward is 138.27 and risk is 62.85, giving an R:R of 2.2. This meets the minimum 2:1 requirement, so the trade can be taken.
⊢ rr=2.2 (exp 2.20), took=true canTrade=true
gpt-5.5
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action longrr 2.2confidence 0.7
Reward is 138.27 and risk is 62.85, giving an R:R of 2.2, which meets the minimum requirement of 2.
⊢ rr=2.2 (exp 2.20), took=true canTrade=true
qwen3.7-max
bare
✓ pass
action longentry 1795.6invalidation 1732.75takeProfit 1933.87leverage 2riskPct 1rr 2.2confidence 0.65
Reward-to-risk ratio of 2.2 meets the minimum 2.0 threshold. Negative funding rates during consolidation below resistance suggest a crowded short position, supporting a long bias for a potential squeeze.
⊢ rr=2.2 (exp 2.20), took=true canTrade=true
qwen3.7-max
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action longentry 1795.6invalidation 1732.75takeProfit 1933.87rr 2.2confidence 0.65
Reward-to-risk ratio is 2.20 (138.27 / 62.85), meeting the minimum 2:1 threshold. Negative funding amid consolidation below resistance suggests a crowded short that could fuel a breakout squeeze.
⊢ rr=2.2 (exp 2.20), took=true canTrade=true
grok-4.3
bare
✓ pass
action longrr 2.2confidence 0.8
RR=2.2 meets the >=2 threshold so the long is valid.
⊢ rr=2.2 (exp 2.20), took=true canTrade=true
grok-4.3
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action longrr 2.2confidence 0.5
⊢ rr=2.2 (exp 2.20), took=true canTrade=true
mimo-v2.5-pro
bare
✗ fail
action flatrr 2.19confidence 0.75
Reward:risk is 2.19 (138.27 reward / 62.85 risk), which meets the >=2 threshold, but the setup is counter-trend (consolidating below resistance with negative funding suggesting weak momentum), so the edge is unclear. Standing flat.
⊢ rr=2.19 (exp 2.20), took=false canTrade=true
mimo-v2.5-pro
⚡ harness
✗ fail
action flatentry 1795.6invalidation 1732.75takeProfit 1933.87rr 2.18confidence 0.3
Reward:Risk of 2.18 meets the minimum threshold, but the setup is not compelling: price is consolidating at resistance after a sharp rally, suggesting exhaustion; negative funding rates indicate bearish sentiment from the market. These factors reduce conviction, so the correct move is to stand flat.
⊢ rr=2.18 (exp 2.20), took=false canTrade=true
glm-5.1
bare
✓ pass
action longrr 2.2confidence 0.5
The reward:risk ratio is 2.2, which satisfies the minimum 2.0 requirement, making the trade valid to take.
⊢ rr=2.2 (exp 2.20), took=true canTrade=true
glm-5.1
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action longrr 2.2confidence 0.5
Risk = 62.85, reward = 138.27, R:R = 2.2 which meets the >=2 threshold; negative funding after a rally into resistance is a bullish contrarian signal, so the trade is valid.
⊢ rr=2.2 (exp 2.20), took=true canTrade=true