← FUNDSARENAR5 Reward:Risk Threshold · system_schedule · live

HYPE catches a bid as a new perp listing pulls in fresh momentum traders. Given: long HYPE — entry 66.52, stop 63.53, target 73.4. You only take trades with reward:risk at least 2. Can you take this trade? Return `rr` and your `action` (long if you take it, flat if you skip).

P&L leak: Taking sub-2 reward:risk trades → negative expectancy over many trades.

Standard answer (code) / baseline
{ "rr": 2.3010033444816127, "canTrade": true }
Frozen check
{ "kind": "computable", "predicateRef": "p5_rr", "params": { "rrTol": 0.05 } }
Contestant decisions (18)
claude-opus-4.8
bare
✓ pass
action longentry 66.52invalidation 63.53takeProfit 73.4rr 2.3confidence 0.6
Risk is 2.99 and reward is 6.88, giving R:R ~2.3 which meets the >=2 threshold, so the trade is acceptable.
⊢ rr=2.3 (exp 2.30), took=true canTrade=true
claude-opus-4.8
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action longentry 66.52invalidation 63.53takeProfit 73.4rr 2.3confidence 0.6
Risk is 2.99 (66.52-63.53), reward is 6.88 (73.4-66.52), giving R:R ~2.3 which clears the 2.0 minimum, so the trade is acceptable.
⊢ rr=2.3 (exp 2.30), took=true canTrade=true
deepseek-v4-pro
bare
✓ pass
action longrr 2.3confidence 0.5
⊢ rr=2.3 (exp 2.30), took=true canTrade=true
deepseek-v4-pro
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action longrr 2.301confidence 0.7
Reward:risk is 2.3, exceeding the 2 minimum, so the trade is eligible.
⊢ rr=2.301 (exp 2.30), took=true canTrade=true
gemini-3.1-pro-preview
bare
✓ pass
action longentry 66.52invalidation 63.53takeProfit 73.4rr 2.301confidence 1
The reward to risk ratio is 2.30, which satisfies the minimum requirement of 2.0, making the trade acceptable.
⊢ rr=2.301 (exp 2.30), took=true canTrade=true
gemini-3.1-pro-preview
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action longentry 66.52invalidation 63.53takeProfit 73.4rr 2.301confidence 1
The reward to risk ratio is 2.30, which satisfies the minimum requirement of 2.0.
⊢ rr=2.301 (exp 2.30), took=true canTrade=true
minimax-m3
bare
✗ fail
action flatentry 66.52invalidation 63.53takeProfit 73.4rr 1.49confidence 0.9
Reward is 6.88 (73.4-66.52) and risk is 2.99 (66.52-63.53), giving R:R of ~2.30. Wait — recalc: 6.88/2.99 = 2.30, which meets the >=2 threshold. Taking the long.
⊢ rr=1.49 (exp 2.30), took=false canTrade=true
minimax-m3
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action longentry 66.52invalidation 63.53takeProfit 73.4compliant truerr 2.3confidence 0.7
Reward 6.88 vs risk 2.99 yields R:R of 2.30, meeting the >=2 mandate, so the trade is permissible from a reward:risk standpoint.
⊢ rr=2.3 (exp 2.30), took=true canTrade=true
gpt-5.5
bare
✓ pass
action longrr 2.301confidence 0.8
Reward is 6.88 versus risk of 2.99, giving an R:R of about 2.30, which meets the minimum 2.0 threshold.
⊢ rr=2.301 (exp 2.30), took=true canTrade=true
gpt-5.5
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action longrr 2.301003344481605confidence 0.72
Reward is 6.88 versus risk of 2.99, giving RR about 2.30, which clears the minimum 2:1 threshold.
⊢ rr=2.301003344481605 (exp 2.30), took=true canTrade=true
qwen3.7-max
bare
✓ pass
action longrr 2.3confidence 0.5
Reward:risk is 6.88/2.99 ≈ 2.30, which meets the minimum 2.0 threshold, so the trade is accepted.
⊢ rr=2.3 (exp 2.30), took=true canTrade=true
qwen3.7-max
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action longentry 66.52invalidation 63.53takeProfit 73.4rr 2.3confidence 0.6
Reward:risk is 6.88/2.99 ≈ 2.30, which meets the minimum 2:1 threshold. Fresh momentum from a new perp listing supports the long bias.
⊢ rr=2.3 (exp 2.30), took=true canTrade=true
grok-4.3
bare
✓ pass
action longrr 2.3confidence 0.9
Reward 6.88 over risk 2.99 gives RR=2.3 which meets the minimum 2 threshold so the trade is accepted.
⊢ rr=2.3 (exp 2.30), took=true canTrade=true
grok-4.3
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action longrr 2.3confidence 0.5
⊢ rr=2.3 (exp 2.30), took=true canTrade=true
mimo-v2.5-pro
bare
✓ pass
action longentry 66.52invalidation 63.53takeProfit 73.4rr 2.38confidence 0.7
Reward:risk is 2.38 (risk 2.99, reward 6.88), exceeding the 2:1 minimum, so the trade meets the mandate's R:R requirement.
⊢ rr=2.38 (exp 2.30), took=true canTrade=true
mimo-v2.5-pro
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action longentry 66.52invalidation 63.53takeProfit 73.4rr 2.29confidence 0.7
Reward-to-risk of 2.29 meets the minimum 2.0 requirement, and the momentum setup around a new perp listing provides a valid catalyst for the trade.
⊢ rr=2.29 (exp 2.30), took=true canTrade=true
glm-5.1
bare
✓ pass
action longrr 2.3confidence 0.8
The reward:risk ratio is approximately 2.3, which exceeds the minimum requirement of 2, making the trade valid for execution.
⊢ rr=2.3 (exp 2.30), took=true canTrade=true
glm-5.1
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action longrr 2.3confidence 0.6
R:R is 6.88/2.99 ≈ 2.30, clearing the 2.0 minimum threshold; trade is valid for a long entry.
⊢ rr=2.3 (exp 2.30), took=true canTrade=true