← FUNDSARENAR1 Position Sizing · system_schedule · live

ETH chops sideways as traders eye the next Fed signal. Given: account $3420, short ETH at 1763.4, stop 1829.53. House rule: risk at most 1.25% of the account per trade. How many ETH do you buy, and what percent of the account is actually at risk? Return `size` (in ETH) and `riskPct`.

P&L leak: Oversizing — risking more than 1% on one trade blows a hole in the account on a single adverse move.

Standard answer (code) / baseline
{ "size": 0.6464539543323767, "riskPct": 1.25 }
Frozen check
{ "kind": "computable", "predicateRef": "p1_sizing", "params": { "sizeTol": 0.05, "riskMax": 1.3125 } }
Contestant decisions (18)
claude-opus-4.8
bare
✓ pass
action shortsize 0.6468entry 1763.4invalidation 1829.53riskPct 1.25confidence 0.6
Risk budget = 1.25% of $3420 = $42.75; stop distance = $66.13, so size = 42.75/66.13 ≈ 0.6468 ETH, putting exactly 1.25% at risk.
⊢ size=0.6468 (exp 0.6465, err 0.1%), riskPct=1.25
claude-opus-4.8
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action shortsize 0.6469entry 1763.4invalidation 1829.53riskPct 1.25confidence 0.6
Risk budget = 1.25% of $3420 = $42.75; stop distance = $66.13, so size = 42.75/66.13 ≈ 0.6469 ETH, putting exactly 1.25% of the account at risk.
⊢ size=0.6469 (exp 0.6465, err 0.1%), riskPct=1.25
deepseek-v4-pro
bare
✓ pass
action shortsize 0.647riskPct 1.25confidence 1
Risk per ETH is 1829.53 - 1763.4 = 66.13. Max risk is 1.25% of $3420 = $42.75. Size = 42.75 / 66.13 ≈ 0.647 ETH. Risk is exactly 1.25%.
⊢ size=0.647 (exp 0.6465, err 0.1%), riskPct=1.25
deepseek-v4-pro
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action shortsize 0.6463riskPct 1.25confidence 0.5
Account equity $3420, max risk 1.25% = $42.75. Risk per ETH (stop - entry) = $66.13. Position size = 42.75 / 66.13 ≈ 0.6463 ETH. Actual risk = 1.25% of account.
⊢ size=0.6463 (exp 0.6465, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
gemini-3.1-pro-preview
bare
✗ fail
action shortsize 0.387887entry 1763.4invalidation 1829.53riskPct 0.75confidence 1
Position size is capped by the 20% max notional rule ($684), which results in a 0.75% risk, keeping it well under the 1% hard limit.
⊢ size=0.387887 (exp 0.6465, err 40.0%), riskPct=0.75
gemini-3.1-pro-preview
⚡ harness
✗ fail
action flatsize 0.387887sizePct 0.2entry 1763.4invalidation 1829.53riskPct 0.75maxNotional 684confidence 0
ETH is chopping sideways with no clear edge, dictating a flat position. If traded, the hard rule capping notional size at 20% of equity ($684) limits the position to 0.387 ETH, resulting in a 0.75% risk, which overrides the 1.25% house rule.
⊢ size=0.387887 (exp 0.6465, err 40.0%), riskPct=0.75
minimax-m3
bare
✓ pass
action shortsize 0.6465entry 1763.4invalidation 1829.53riskPct 1.25confidence 0.5
Risk per ETH = 1829.53 - 1763.4 = 66.13. Max dollar risk = 1.25% * 3420 = 42.75. Size = 42.75 / 66.13 ≈ 0.6465 ETH, so account risk is exactly 1.25%.
⊢ size=0.6465 (exp 0.6465, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
minimax-m3
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action shortsize 0.6465entry 1763.4invalidation 1829.53riskPct 1.25confidence 1
Stop distance 1829.53-1763.4=66.13. Max risk = 3420*0.0125=42.75. Size = 42.75/66.13 ≈ 0.6465 ETH, risking exactly 1.25% of equity per house rule.
⊢ size=0.6465 (exp 0.6465, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
gpt-5.5
bare
✗ fail
action shortsize 0.387887riskPct 0.75003confidence 0.98
Size is capped by the stricter mandate limit of 20% account notional: $684 / 1763.4 = 0.387887 ETH. With a $66.13 stop distance, actual risk is about $25.65, or 0.75003% of the account.
⊢ size=0.387887 (exp 0.6465, err 40.0%), riskPct=0.75003
gpt-5.5
⚡ harness
✗ fail
action flatsize 0.387887riskPct 0.750075confidence 0.74
ETH is described as chopping sideways ahead of a Fed signal, so I would not open a new short. If sizing the specified short under the stricter mandate, the 20% notional cap binds: 0.387887 ETH risks about 0.750075% of equity.
⊢ size=0.387887 (exp 0.6465, err 40.0%), riskPct=0.750075
qwen3.7-max
bare
✗ fail
action shortsize 0.3879entry 1763.4invalidation 1829.53riskPct 0.75confidence 0.5
Hard rules override the suggested 1.25% risk, capping it at 1%, and also cap notional at 20% of equity ($684). The notional constraint limits size to 0.3879 ETH, resulting in an actual risk of 0.75%.
⊢ size=0.3879 (exp 0.6465, err 40.0%), riskPct=0.75
qwen3.7-max
⚡ harness
✗ fail
action shortsize 0.3879entry 1763.4invalidation 1829.53leverage 1riskPct 0.75compliant truemaxNotional 684confidence 0.5
Position size is capped by the 20% max notional hard rule ($684), restricting actual risk to 0.75% and overriding the 1.25% house rule to maintain strict system compliance.
⊢ size=0.3879 (exp 0.6465, err 40.0%), riskPct=0.75
grok-4.3
bare
✓ pass
action shortsize 0.646riskPct 1.25confidence 0.9
Risk limit 1.25% of 3420 gives 42.75 USD; 66.13 USD/ETH stop distance yields 0.646 ETH position size realizing exactly 1.25% risk.
⊢ size=0.646 (exp 0.6465, err 0.1%), riskPct=1.25
grok-4.3
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action flatsize 0.646riskPct 1.25confidence 0.5
Sideways chop, no edge; sizing calc for given short uses 1.25% risk on 66.13$ stop distance.
⊢ size=0.646 (exp 0.6465, err 0.1%), riskPct=1.25
mimo-v2.5-pro
bare
✓ pass
action shortsize 0.644entry 1763.4invalidation 1829.53riskPct 1.25confidence 1
Calculate position size so that if stopped out at 1829.53, the loss equals exactly 1.25% of $3420 ($42.75).
⊢ size=0.644 (exp 0.6465, err 0.4%), riskPct=1.25
mimo-v2.5-pro
⚡ harness
✗ fail
action flatriskPct 1confidence 0.7
House rule caps risk at 1.25% per trade; max allowed risk is 1% per hard rules, so size must be scaled down. However, market context is choppy with no clear edge; standing flat is preferred.
⊢ missing size or riskPct
glm-5.1
bare
✓ pass
action shortsize 0.6465riskPct 1.25confidence 0.9
Max risk is $42.75 (1.25% of $3420). Stop distance is $66.13. Size is 42.75 / 66.13 = 0.6465 ETH, risking exactly 1.25% of the account, though this exceeds the 1% hard rule.
⊢ size=0.6465 (exp 0.6465, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
glm-5.1
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action flatsize 0.6465riskPct 1.25confidence 0
No edge in a chopping market; risk exceeds mandate's 1% cap. Calculated size = 0.6465 ETH at 1.25% risk.
⊢ size=0.6465 (exp 0.6465, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25