← FUNDSARENAR5 Reward:Risk Threshold · system_schedule · live

ETH grinds higher as staking inflows offset a sleepy macro session. Given: long ETH — entry 1790.2, stop 1727.54, target 1931.19. You only take trades with reward:risk at least 2. Can you take this trade? Return `rr` and your `action` (long if you take it, flat if you skip).

P&L leak: Taking sub-2 reward:risk trades → negative expectancy over many trades.

Standard answer (code) / baseline
{ "rr": 2.2500797957229466, "canTrade": true }
Frozen check
{ "kind": "computable", "predicateRef": "p5_rr", "params": { "rrTol": 0.05 } }
Contestant decisions (18)
claude-opus-4.8
bare
✓ pass
action longentry 1790.2invalidation 1727.54takeProfit 1931.19rr 2.25confidence 0.6
Risk is 62.66 and reward is 140.99, giving R:R of 2.25 which meets the 2.0 minimum; staking inflows support the grind higher.
⊢ rr=2.25 (exp 2.25), took=true canTrade=true
claude-opus-4.8
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action longentry 1790.2invalidation 1727.54takeProfit 1931.19rr 2.25confidence 0.6
Risk is 62.66 and reward is 140.99, giving R:R of ~2.25 which meets the >=2 threshold, so the trade is acceptable.
⊢ rr=2.25 (exp 2.25), took=true canTrade=true
deepseek-v4-pro
bare
✓ pass
action longrr 2.25confidence 0.5
RR = (1931.19 - 1790.2) / (1790.2 - 1727.54) = 140.99 / 62.66 = 2.25 >= 2, so the trade meets the reward:risk requirement.
⊢ rr=2.25 (exp 2.25), took=true canTrade=true
deepseek-v4-pro
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action longrr 2.25confidence 0.8
Reward to risk ratio is 2.25, exceeding the minimum 2.0 requirement, so the trade is valid.
⊢ rr=2.25 (exp 2.25), took=true canTrade=true
gemini-3.1-pro-preview
bare
✓ pass
action longentry 1790.2invalidation 1727.54takeProfit 1931.19rr 2.25confidence 1
The reward to risk ratio is 2.25, which satisfies the minimum requirement of 2.0, making this a valid long setup.
⊢ rr=2.25 (exp 2.25), took=true canTrade=true
gemini-3.1-pro-preview
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action longentry 1790.2invalidation 1727.54takeProfit 1931.19rr 2.25confidence 0.9
The reward to risk ratio is 2.25, which satisfies the minimum requirement of 2.0.
⊢ rr=2.25 (exp 2.25), took=true canTrade=true
minimax-m3
bare
✗ fail
action longentry 1790.2invalidation 1727.54takeProfit 1931.19rr 2confidence 0.7
Reward:risk = (1931.19 - 1790.2) / (1790.2 - 1727.54) = 140.99 / 62.66 ≈ 2.25, which meets the minimum 2:1 threshold, so the trade is taken.
⊢ rr=2 (exp 2.25), took=true canTrade=true
minimax-m3
⚡ harness
✗ fail
action longentry 1790.2invalidation 1727.54takeProfit 1931.19rr 2confidence 0.7
Reward = 1931.19 - 1790.2 = 140.99; Risk = 1790.2 - 1727.54 = 62.66; R:R = 140.99 / 62.66 ≈ 2.25, which meets the >=2 threshold, so the trade is taken.
⊢ rr=2 (exp 2.25), took=true canTrade=true
gpt-5.5
bare
✓ pass
action longrr 2.25008confidence 0.99
Reward is 140.99 versus risk of 62.66, giving an R:R of about 2.25. This meets the minimum threshold of 2, so the trade can be taken.
⊢ rr=2.25008 (exp 2.25), took=true canTrade=true
gpt-5.5
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action longrr 2.25confidence 0.72
Reward is 140.99 and risk is 62.66, giving an R:R of about 2.25, which meets the minimum 2.0 threshold.
⊢ rr=2.25 (exp 2.25), took=true canTrade=true
qwen3.7-max
bare
✓ pass
action longentry 1790.2invalidation 1727.54takeProfit 1931.19rr 2.25confidence 0.6
Reward:risk is 140.99/62.66 ≈ 2.25, which meets the minimum 2.0 threshold. Staking inflows provide a supportive bid while macro is quiet, allowing the grind higher to continue.
⊢ rr=2.25 (exp 2.25), took=true canTrade=true
qwen3.7-max
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action longsizePct 0.2entry 1790.2invalidation 1727.54takeProfit 1931.19leverage 1riskPct 0.7rr 2.25confidence 0.55
R:R of 2.25 meets the minimum 2:1 threshold; staking inflows provide mild bullish bias but sleepy macro keeps conviction moderate, so notional is capped at 20% with 1x leverage to stay within risk limits.
⊢ rr=2.25 (exp 2.25), took=true canTrade=true
grok-4.3
bare
✓ pass
action longrr 2.25confidence 0.5
⊢ rr=2.25 (exp 2.25), took=true canTrade=true
grok-4.3
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action longrr 2.25confidence 0
⊢ rr=2.25 (exp 2.25), took=true canTrade=true
mimo-v2.5-pro
bare
✓ pass
action longentry 1790.2invalidation 1727.54takeProfit 1931.19rr 2.25confidence 0.7
Reward:risk ratio is 2.25 which meets the minimum 2.0 threshold, making the trade eligible based on the R:R rule.
⊢ rr=2.25 (exp 2.25), took=true canTrade=true
mimo-v2.5-pro
⚡ harness
✗ fail
action flatentry 1790.2invalidation 1727.54takeProfit 1931.19rr 2.26confidence 0
R:R is 2.26 which meets the minimum 2 threshold, but without current market data (ADX, volatility, funding, smart-money positioning) I cannot verify there is an edge. The no-edge gate requires me to stand flat when conditions are unclear.
⊢ rr=2.26 (exp 2.25), took=false canTrade=true
glm-5.1
bare
✓ pass
action longrr 2.25confidence 0.5
⊢ rr=2.25 (exp 2.25), took=true canTrade=true
glm-5.1
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action longrr 2.25confidence 0.5
⊢ rr=2.25 (exp 2.25), took=true canTrade=true