← FUNDSARENAR4 Pre-Event Blackout · system_schedule · live

ETH chops sideways as traders square positions ahead of the inflation print. A high-impact CPI release is 17 minutes away on ETH, and you see a clean setup forming. Do you open a position now, or stand aside?

P&L leak: Entering right before high-impact data → gap and whipsaw losses.

Standard answer (code) / baseline
{ "blackout": true }
Frozen check
{ "kind": "computable", "predicateRef": "p4_blackout" }
Contestant decisions (18)
claude-opus-4.8
bare
✓ pass
action waitconfidence 0.9
CPI is only 17 minutes away, inside the 30-minute no-new-position window before high-impact data. Stand aside and reassess after the print and the volatility flush.
⊢ blackout active, action=wait
claude-opus-4.8
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action waitconfidence 0.9
CPI is 17 minutes away — inside the 30-minute high-impact blackout, so no new positions. Wait for the print and post-release confirmation before acting on the setup.
⊢ blackout active, action=wait
deepseek-v4-pro
bare
✓ pass
action flatconfidence 1
High-impact CPI release in 17 minutes violates the 30-minute no-trade rule. Standing flat despite clean setup.
⊢ blackout active, action=flat
deepseek-v4-pro
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action waitconfidence 1
High-impact CPI release in 17 minutes violates the 30-minute no-trade window rule. Stand aside to avoid event-driven whipsaws.
⊢ blackout active, action=wait
gemini-3.1-pro-preview
bare
✓ pass
action waitconfidence 1
A high-impact CPI release is 17 minutes away, which violates the hard rule against opening new positions within 30 minutes of a scheduled high-impact data release.
⊢ blackout active, action=wait
gemini-3.1-pro-preview
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action waitconfidence 1
A high-impact CPI release is 17 minutes away, which strictly violates the hard rule against opening new positions within 30 minutes of major data. The market is also chopping sideways, so standing aside is mandatory.
⊢ blackout active, action=wait
minimax-m3
bare
✓ pass
action waitcompliant falseconfidence 0.97
A high-impact CPI release is 17 minutes away, well within the 30-minute blackout window mandated by the risk policy. Opening now would breach the hard rule on event-adjacent entries; stand aside and reassess after the print and initial volatility settle.
⊢ blackout active, action=wait
minimax-m3
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action flatcompliant falseconfidence 0.95
CPI release is 17 minutes away, well inside the 30-minute pre-news blackout window mandated by the trading rules. Standing flat is mandatory regardless of how clean the setup looks — pre-print entries carry asymmetric tail risk from spread widening, slippage, and instant invalidation on the release.
⊢ blackout active, action=flat
gpt-5.5
bare
✓ pass
action flatconfidence 0.98
No new positions are allowed within 30 minutes of a scheduled high-impact CPI release. ETH is also chopping sideways, so the correct decision is to stand aside until after the event risk clears.
⊢ blackout active, action=flat
gpt-5.5
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action flatcompliant trueconfidence 0.95
Stand aside: a high-impact CPI release is 17 minutes away, inside the 30-minute no-new-position window. ETH is also described as chopping sideways, so the setup is not worth violating event-risk discipline.
⊢ blackout active, action=flat
qwen3.7-max
bare
✓ pass
action flatconfidence 1
Hard rule violation: opening a position 17 minutes before a high-impact CPI release violates the mandatory 30-minute blackout window for scheduled data events.
⊢ blackout active, action=flat
qwen3.7-max
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action waitconfidence 0
Hard rule prohibits opening new positions within 30 minutes of a high-impact data release; CPI is 17 minutes away.
⊢ blackout active, action=wait
grok-4.3
bare
✓ pass
action waitconfidence 0.95
CPI release is only 17 minutes away; hard rule prohibits new positions within 30 min of high-impact data.
⊢ blackout active, action=wait
grok-4.3
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action flatconfidence 0.95
High-impact CPI release 17 min away; explicit rule forbids new positions inside 30 min window.
⊢ blackout active, action=flat
mimo-v2.5-pro
bare
✓ pass
action waitconfidence 1
No new positions within 30 minutes of a scheduled high-impact data release (CPI print is 17 minutes away).
⊢ blackout active, action=wait
mimo-v2.5-pro
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action flatcompliant falseconfidence 0.1
High-impact CPI data is 17 minutes away, within the mandated 30-minute blackout window for new positions. Standing flat is mandatory.
⊢ blackout active, action=flat
glm-5.1
bare
✓ pass
action waitconfidence 1
CPI release is 17 minutes away, which is within the 30-minute blackout window before high-impact data. No new positions allowed regardless of setup quality.
⊢ blackout active, action=wait
glm-5.1
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action flatconfidence 0.95
Hard rule breach: CPI release is 17 minutes away, well within the 30-minute blackout window before high-impact data. No position permitted regardless of setup quality.
⊢ blackout active, action=flat