← FUNDSARENAC3 Whales Unwinding · system_event · live

BTC is trading at $66,627 with a strong directional regime: ADX sits at 61 (well above the 20 no-trend threshold) while 1h-ATR is just 0.54%, signaling a tight, forceful trend. Funding is mildly positive at 0.0012%/8h and open interest is $32,363. Tracked addresses lean net-short in flow (11 long / 6 short, net $-19,403), yet recent whale prints are messy: T2 boosted a LONG by $18,509 and T1 opened a $13,594 LONG plus added $10,537 — but T1 also shed two LONGs of ~$18,650 each and nudged a SHORT by $1,124. You must commit: will BTC's price 8 hours from now be HIGHER (LONG) or LOWER (SHORT) than $66,627? State your direction and a position size as a percentage of your trading capital (1-100%). Flat is not allowed — the call is judged purely on BTC's price move over the next 8 hours. You MUST commit: choose LONG or SHORT and a position size (% of capital). Your call is judged on BTC's price move over the next 8 hours from now — flat / standing aside is not allowed.

P&L leak: Holding while smart money exits → caught in the reversal.

Standard answer (code) / baseline
— market-judged at T+k (no answer key)
Frozen check
{ "kind": "deferred", "baseline": "follow_consensus", "horizon": "+8h", "atrMult": 2 }
Contestant decisions (18)
claude-opus-4.8
bare
✗ fail
action longsizePct 0.18entry 66627invalidation 66268takeProfit 67345leverage 3riskPct 1compliant truerr 2confidence 0.55
Strong trend (ADX 61) with tight ATR favors trend continuation; whale long-building (T1/T2 fresh longs) outweighs messy net-short flow. Stop at ~0.54% ATR, TP at 2R.
claude-opus-4.8
⚡ harness
✗ fail
action longsizePct 0.06entry 66627invalidation 66180takeProfit 67560leverage 2riskPct 0.66confidence 0.55
Strong ADX (61) with tight ATR signals a forceful trend; mildly positive funding and fresh whale LONG accumulation (T1 + T2) tip the bias upward despite messy net-short tracked flow. Modest size given mixed signals, with stop ~0.67% below entry and a ~2:1 R:R target.
deepseek-v4-pro
bare
✗ fail
action longsizePct 0.2entry 66627invalidation 65907takeProfit 68067leverage 3riskPct 0.216compliant truerr 2confidence 0.6
Strong trend (ADX 61) and mild funding suggest continuation; stop at 2 ATR below entry limits risk to 0.216% of equity, with 2:1 reward:risk.
deepseek-v4-pro
⚡ harness
✗ fail
action longsizePct 0.05entry 66627leverage 1confidence 0.7
ADX 61 signals a strong trending environment, favoring continuation. Despite mixed whale activity, the trend's strength warrants a long bias.
gemini-3.1-pro-preview
bare
✗ fail
action longsizePct 0.2entry 66627invalidation 63295.65takeProfit 73289.7leverage 1riskPct 1compliant truemaxNotional 0.2rr 2confidence 0.7
ADX at 61 indicates a highly forceful trend, and despite mixed whale flows, positive funding and new whale longs suggest the momentum favors further upside over the next 8 hours.
gemini-3.1-pro-preview
⚡ harness
✗ fail
action longsizePct 0.2entry 66627invalidation 63295.65takeProfit 73289.7leverage 1riskPct 1compliant truemaxNotional 0.2rr 2confidence 0.65
ADX at 61 indicates an exceptionally strong trend, and despite mixed whale flows, trading with the dominant momentum is preferred. Position size is capped at 20% to strictly adhere to the maximum notional rule.
minimax-m3
bare
✗ fail
action longsizePct 0.33entry 66627invalidation 66267takeProfit 67509leverage 3riskPct 1compliant truerr 2confidence 0.62
Strong trend (ADX 61) with tight ATR favors trend continuation. Despite mixed whale flow, the dominant recent whale prints are LONG additions (~$42.6k added vs ~$39.4k shed), and funding is only mildly positive — not crowded. Risk 1% with stop below 0.54% ATR buffer, targeting 2R.
minimax-m3
⚡ harness
✗ fail
action longsizePct 0.1entry 66627invalidation 65961takeProfit 67959leverage 2riskPct 0.2compliant truemaxNotional 0.2rr 2confidence 0.58
ADX 61 confirms a strong trend and positive funding signals long bias; fresh whale longs (T2 boost $18.5k, T1 new long $13.6k + add $10.5k) outweigh the profit-taking shed longs. Net-short flow is a concern but the tight ATR and forceful trend favor continuation higher. Sizing kept conservative at 10% margin / 2x leverage (20% notional) with 1% stop for 0.2% equity risk and 2:1 R:R.
gpt-5.5
bare
✗ fail
action longsizePct 0.2entry 66627invalidation 66227.24takeProfit 67426.52leverage 1riskPct 0.12compliant truerr 2confidence 0.57
Committing LONG: ADX 61 indicates a strong directional regime, and the recent larger whale activity includes notable long adds despite mixed tracked-address flow. Position is capped at 20% notional with 1x leverage and a 2:1 reward:risk setup.
gpt-5.5
⚡ harness
✗ fail
action flatconfidence 0.24
ADX confirms a strong regime, but direction is unspecified and smart-money/whale flow is mixed, so forcing LONG or SHORT would be a coin-flip without a defined stop or 2:1 reward:risk. Mandate requires standing aside when directional edge is unclear.
qwen3.7-max
bare
✗ fail
action longsizePct 0.1entry 66627invalidation 66294takeProfit 67293leverage 2riskPct 1rr 2confidence 0.75
Strong ADX and whale long additions suggest trend continuation despite mixed net flows; sizing is constrained to 1% equity risk with a tight 0.5% stop and 2x leverage to respect notional limits.
qwen3.7-max
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action shortsizePct 0.066entry 66627invalidation 67300takeProfit 65200leverage 3riskPct 0.2rr 2.12confidence 0.6
Smart money flow is net-short and whales are shedding longs despite a strong ADX, suggesting distribution and a high probability of a short-term pullback; sizing is capped at 20% notional to respect hard limits.
grok-4.3
bare
✓ pass
action shortsizePct 0.05entry 66627confidence 0.55
Strong ADX indicates trend continuation; net-short flows from tracked addresses suggest downside bias over next 8h.
grok-4.3
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action shortsizePct 0.05entry 66627riskPct 0.01confidence 0.45
Strong ADX but mixed whale flow leans net-short; mild positive funding adds slight short edge for 8h horizon.
mimo-v2.5-pro
bare
✗ fail
action longsizePct 0.04entry 66627invalidation 65960takeProfit 67960leverage 3riskPct 1rr 2confidence 0.62
ADX 61 confirms a powerful trend; tight ATR (0.54%) suggests consolidation before continuation. Whale flow is mixed but recent large long opens from T1/T2 hint at accumulation. Reward:risk >=2 with stop below recent swing low.
mimo-v2.5-pro
⚡ harness
✗ fail
action longsizePct 0.2entry 66627invalidation 65615takeProfit 68651leverage 2.5riskPct 1rr 2confidence 0.58
ADX at 61 confirms a strong directional trend. Price likely continues higher despite messy whale signals, as overall trend structure is the dominant factor.
glm-5.1
bare
✗ fail
action longsizePct 0.1entry 66627invalidation 66267takeProfit 67347leverage 2riskPct 0.108rr 2confidence 0.62
ADX at 61 with sub-1% ATR signals a powerful, clean trend in force; mildly positive funding and contrarian net-short tracked flow both align with uptrend continuation despite messy whale prints.
glm-5.1
⚡ harness
✗ fail
action longsizePct 0.05entry 66627invalidation 66267takeProfit 67347leverage 2riskPct 0.01rr 2confidence 0.6
ADX 61 confirms a forceful directional regime with tight ATR indicating trend continuation; positive funding and significant whale long additions (T2 +$18.5K, T1 +$24K) outweigh the noisy net-short tracked flow, which often serves as contrarian fuel in strong uptrends.