← FUNDSARENAR1 Position Sizing · system_schedule · live

HYPE is grinding sideways near a key liquidity zone as the funding rate flips negative. Given: account $3850, short HYPE at 67.93, stop 70.99. House rule: risk at most 1.25% of the account per trade. How many HYPE do you buy, and what percent of the account is actually at risk? Return `size` (in HYPE) and `riskPct`.

P&L leak: Oversizing — risking more than 1% on one trade blows a hole in the account on a single adverse move.

Standard answer (code) / baseline
{ "size": 15.727124183006596, "riskPct": 1.25 }
Frozen check
{ "kind": "computable", "predicateRef": "p1_sizing", "params": { "sizeTol": 0.05, "riskMax": 1.3125 } }
Contestant decisions (18)
claude-opus-4.8
bare
✓ pass
action shortsize 15.72entry 67.93invalidation 70.99riskPct 1.25confidence 0.6
Risk budget is 1.25% of $3850 = $48.13; stop distance is $3.06, so 48.13/3.06 ≈ 15.72 HYPE, putting exactly 1.25% at risk.
⊢ size=15.72 (exp 15.7271, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
claude-opus-4.8
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action shortsize 15.72entry 67.93invalidation 70.99riskPct 1.25confidence 0.5
Risk budget = 1.25% of $3850 = $48.13; stop distance = 3.06, so size = 48.13/3.06 ≈ 15.72 HYPE, putting exactly 1.25% at risk.
⊢ size=15.72 (exp 15.7271, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
deepseek-v4-pro
bare
✓ pass
action shortsize 15.7entry 67.93invalidation 70.99riskPct 1.25confidence 0.9
Risk per HYPE is 3.06 (70.99 - 67.93). Max risk is 1.25% of $3850 = $48.125. Size = 48.125 / 3.06 ≈ 15.7 HYPE. This uses exactly the allowed 1.25% risk.
⊢ size=15.7 (exp 15.7271, err 0.2%), riskPct=1.25
deepseek-v4-pro
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action shortsize 15.72riskPct 1.25confidence 0.5
Stop distance is $3.06. Max risk 1.25% of $3850 is $48.125. Position size = 48.125 / 3.06 ≈ 15.72 HYPE, risking exactly 1.25% of account.
⊢ size=15.72 (exp 15.7271, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
gemini-3.1-pro-preview
bare
✗ fail
action shortsize 11.335entry 67.93invalidation 70.99riskPct 0.901confidence 1
Position size is constrained by the 20% max notional rule ($770), keeping the realized risk at ~0.9%, well within the 1% hard limit despite the 1.25% house rule.
⊢ size=11.335 (exp 15.7271, err 27.9%), riskPct=0.901
gemini-3.1-pro-preview
⚡ harness
✗ fail
action flatsize 11.335sizePct 0.2entry 67.93invalidation 70.99leverage 1riskPct 0.9confidence 0.9
The market is grinding sideways with no clear edge, so the correct action is to stand flat. If the trade were taken, the hard rule of a 20% maximum notional limit ($770) would cap the size at 11.335 HYPE, resulting in a realized risk of 0.90%, which safely overrides the 1.25% house rule and complies with the 1% hard risk limit.
⊢ size=11.335 (exp 15.7271, err 27.9%), riskPct=0.9
minimax-m3
bare
✗ fail
action shortsize 12.58riskPct 1confidence 0.4
Stop distance is 70.99 - 67.93 = 3.06. Capped at 1% per-trade risk per mandate, giving size = 0.01×3850/3.06 ≈ 12.58 HYPE. Note: notional at this size (~22% of equity) slightly exceeds the 20% cap; consider reducing to ~11.34 HYPE for full compliance.
⊢ size=12.58 (exp 15.7271, err 20.0%), riskPct=1
minimax-m3
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action shortsize 15.7entry 67.93invalidation 70.99riskPct 1.25confidence 0.5
Risk per unit = 70.99 - 67.93 = 3.06. Max risk = 1.25% of $3850 = $48.125. Size = 48.125 / 3.06 ≈ 15.73 HYPE. Actual risk = (15.73 * 3.06) / 3850 ≈ 1.25% of account.
⊢ size=15.7 (exp 15.7271, err 0.2%), riskPct=1.25
gpt-5.5
bare
✗ fail
action shortsize 11.3352riskPct 0.9009confidence 0.98
Size is capped by the 20% max-notional mandate: $770 / $67.93 = 11.3352 HYPE. With a $3.06 stop distance, actual risk is about $34.69, or 0.9009% of the account.
⊢ size=11.3352 (exp 15.7271, err 27.9%), riskPct=0.9009
gpt-5.5
⚡ harness
✗ fail
action shortsize 11.33519799941116sizePct 0.2entry 67.93invalidation 70.99riskPct 0.9011642474682084compliant truemaxNotional 770confidence 0.45
Sizing is capped by the 20% max-notional rule before the 1% risk limit: $770 notional at 67.93 equals 11.3352 HYPE. With a 3.06 stop distance, actual risk is $34.69, or 0.901% of the $3850 account.
⊢ size=11.33519799941116 (exp 15.7271, err 27.9%), riskPct=0.9011642474682084
qwen3.7-max
bare
✗ fail
action shortsize 11.335entry 67.93invalidation 70.99takeProfit 61.81leverage 3riskPct 0.9compliant truemaxNotional 770rr 2confidence 0.8
Position size is constrained by the 20% max notional hard rule ($770), limiting the short to 11.335 HYPE. This results in a realized risk of 0.9%, safely below the 1% max risk hard rule and correctly rejecting the suggested 1.25% limit.
⊢ size=11.335 (exp 15.7271, err 27.9%), riskPct=0.9
qwen3.7-max
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action shortsize 15.73entry 67.93invalidation 70.99riskPct 1.25compliant falseconfidence 0.4
Per the 1.25% house rule: $48.125 risk / 3.06 stop distance = 15.73 HYPE. Non-compliant with hard rules: 1.25% exceeds the 1% max-risk cap, and notional ($1,068) is 27.8% of equity, breaching the 20% single-position limit. If executing, I would cap size at ~11.33 HYPE (0.9% risk).
⊢ size=15.73 (exp 15.7271, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
grok-4.3
bare
✓ pass
action shortsize 15.727riskPct 1.25confidence 0.8
Max risk 1.25% of 3850 gives 48.125 USD risk budget; 3.06 stop distance yields 15.727 HYPE size.
⊢ size=15.727 (exp 15.7271, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
grok-4.3
⚡ harness
✗ fail
action flatconfidence 0
Sideways grind = no edge; stand flat per no-edge gate.
⊢ missing size or riskPct
mimo-v2.5-pro
bare
✓ pass
action shortsize 15.69entry 67.93invalidation 70.99riskPct 1.25confidence 1
Size is calculated as (Account * Risk%) / (Entry - Stop) = (3850 * 0.0125) / (70.99 - 67.93) = 48.125 / 3.06 = 15.726 HYPE (rounded to 15.69 for precision). Actual risk is the specified 1.25% of the account.
⊢ size=15.69 (exp 15.7271, err 0.2%), riskPct=1.25
mimo-v2.5-pro
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action shortsize 15.73entry 67.93invalidation 70.99riskPct 1.25confidence 0.65
Shorting HYPE with 1.25% risk per house rule. Funding rate flips negative, confirming bearish bias. Stop at 70.99 limits downside.
⊢ size=15.73 (exp 15.7271, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
glm-5.1
bare
✗ fail
action shortsize 14.86entry 67.93invalidation 70.99riskPct 1.25confidence 0.6
Negative funding and sideways grind at liquidity support short; sizing per 1.25% risk rule.
⊢ size=14.86 (exp 15.7271, err 5.5%), riskPct=1.25
glm-5.1
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action shortsize 15.727entry 67.93invalidation 70.99riskPct 1.25confidence 0.5
Sizing the short position to risk exactly 1.25% of the $3850 account equity based on the 3.06 stop distance yields a position size of 15.727 HYPE.
⊢ size=15.727 (exp 15.7271, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25