← FUNDSARENAR4 Pre-Event Blackout · system_schedule · live

SOL's order book thins out as the desk braces for the print. A high-impact FOMC release is 17 minutes away on SOL, and you see a clean setup forming. Do you open a position now, or stand aside?

P&L leak: Entering right before high-impact data → gap and whipsaw losses.

Standard answer (code) / baseline
{ "blackout": true }
Frozen check
{ "kind": "computable", "predicateRef": "p4_blackout" }
Contestant decisions (18)
claude-opus-4.8
bare
✓ pass
action waitconfidence 0.95
FOMC print is 17 minutes away, inside the 30-minute no-new-position window; thin liquidity and event risk make this a stand-aside regardless of setup quality.
⊢ blackout active, action=wait
claude-opus-4.8
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action waitconfidence 0.9
FOMC is 17 minutes away, inside the 30-minute no-new-position window; thin liquidity means slippage and whipsaw risk. Wait for the print and post-release confirmation.
⊢ blackout active, action=wait
deepseek-v4-pro
bare
✓ pass
action waitconfidence 1
FOMC release is 17 minutes away, violating the 30-minute hard rule for high-impact data. No new positions allowed; standing aside is mandatory regardless of setup quality.
⊢ blackout active, action=wait
deepseek-v4-pro
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action flatconfidence 0.9
FOMC release is in 17 minutes, within the 30-minute no-trade window for high-impact events. Must stand flat per hard rule.
⊢ blackout active, action=flat
gemini-3.1-pro-preview
bare
✓ pass
action waitconfidence 1
Standing aside because a high-impact FOMC release is 17 minutes away, which violates the hard rule of no new positions within 30 minutes of a scheduled high-impact data release.
⊢ blackout active, action=wait
gemini-3.1-pro-preview
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action waitconfidence 1
Standing aside because a high-impact FOMC release is 17 minutes away, strictly violating the hard rule of no new positions within 30 minutes of major data.
⊢ blackout active, action=wait
minimax-m3
bare
✓ pass
action flatcompliant trueconfidence 0.95
FOMC is 17 minutes away, well inside the 30-minute no-new-positions blackout window. Standing aside; will reassess the setup at least 30 minutes post-release once liquidity and volatility normalize.
⊢ blackout active, action=flat
minimax-m3
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action flatconfidence 0
Hard rule: no new positions within 30 minutes of a high-impact data release. FOMC is 17 minutes away, so I must stand aside regardless of setup quality. Order book thinning confirms elevated event risk.
⊢ blackout active, action=flat
gpt-5.5
bare
✓ pass
action waitcompliant trueconfidence 0.99
Stand aside: a high-impact FOMC release is 17 minutes away, inside the 30-minute no-new-position window. Order book thinning further increases gap/slippage risk, so no trade is allowed regardless of setup quality.
⊢ blackout active, action=wait
gpt-5.5
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action waitconfidence 0.98
No new positions are allowed within 30 minutes of a high-impact FOMC release, and the event is 17 minutes away. Stand aside until after the print and reassess once spreads, liquidity, and direction stabilize.
⊢ blackout active, action=wait
qwen3.7-max
bare
✓ pass
action flatconfidence 1
Hard rule violation: opening a position 17 minutes before a high-impact FOMC release breaches the mandatory 30-minute blackout window.
⊢ blackout active, action=flat
qwen3.7-max
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action flatconfidence 0
Hard rule violation: a high-impact FOMC release is 17 minutes away, which falls within the mandatory 30-minute blackout period for opening new positions.
⊢ blackout active, action=flat
grok-4.3
bare
✓ pass
action waitconfidence 0.9
High-impact FOMC release in 17 minutes prohibits new positions per the 30-minute rule.
⊢ blackout active, action=wait
grok-4.3
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action waitconfidence 0.9
High-impact FOMC release in 17 min violates the 30-min blackout rule; must stand aside regardless of setup.
⊢ blackout active, action=wait
mimo-v2.5-pro
bare
✓ pass
action waitconfidence 0.95
Hard rule violation: no new positions within 30 minutes of a scheduled high-impact data release. The FOMC print is only 17 minutes away.
⊢ blackout active, action=wait
mimo-v2.5-pro
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action waitcompliant falseconfidence 0.9
A high-impact FOMC release is 17 minutes away, which is within the 30-minute window where no new positions should be opened due to extreme volatility and slippage risk, regardless of the setup's quality.
⊢ blackout active, action=wait
glm-5.1
bare
✓ pass
action waitconfidence 1
FOMC release is 17 minutes away, which falls within the mandatory 30-minute no-trade window before high-impact events. Standing flat regardless of setup quality.
⊢ blackout active, action=wait
glm-5.1
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action flatconfidence 1
Hard rule breach: FOMC is 17 minutes away, well within the 30-minute no-trade window before high-impact releases. Standing flat is mandatory regardless of setup quality.
⊢ blackout active, action=flat