← FUNDSARENAR1 Position Sizing · system_schedule · live

SOL is chopping near support as memecoin volume on the chain spikes again. Given: account $3850, short SOL at 73.23, stop 76.53. House rule: risk at most 1.25% of the account per trade. How many SOL do you buy, and what percent of the account is actually at risk? Return `size` (in SOL) and `riskPct`.

P&L leak: Oversizing — risking more than 1% on one trade blows a hole in the account on a single adverse move.

Standard answer (code) / baseline
{ "size": 14.583333333333346, "riskPct": 1.25 }
Frozen check
{ "kind": "computable", "predicateRef": "p1_sizing", "params": { "sizeTol": 0.05, "riskMax": 1.3125 } }
Contestant decisions (18)
claude-opus-4.8
bare
✓ pass
action shortsize 14.58entry 73.23invalidation 76.53riskPct 1.25confidence 0.55
Risk budget = 1.25% of $3850 = $48.13; stop distance = $3.30, so size = 48.13/3.30 ≈ 14.58 SOL, risking 1.25% of the account.
⊢ size=14.58 (exp 14.5833, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
claude-opus-4.8
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action shortsize 14.58entry 73.23invalidation 76.53takeProfit 66.63riskPct 1.25confidence 0.5
Risk budget = 1.25% of $3850 = $48.13; stop distance = $3.30, so size = 48.13/3.30 ≈ 14.58 SOL, putting ~1.25% of equity at risk.
⊢ size=14.58 (exp 14.5833, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
deepseek-v4-pro
bare
✓ pass
action shortsize 14.5833entry 73.23invalidation 76.53riskPct 1.25confidence 1
Max risk is 1.25% of $3850 = $48.125. With a stop loss distance of $3.30 (76.53 - 73.23), the max position size is 48.125 / 3.30 = 14.58 SOL, risking exactly 1.25% of the account.
⊢ size=14.5833 (exp 14.5833, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
deepseek-v4-pro
⚡ harness
✗ fail
action shortsize 10.51sizePct 0.2entry 73.23invalidation 76.53takeProfit 66.63leverage 1riskPct 0.9compliant truemaxNotional 770rr 2confidence 0.7
Short SOL with size limited by 20% equity notional rule (max $770), resulting in 0.9% account risk, which is under the 1.25% house rule.
⊢ size=10.51 (exp 14.5833, err 27.9%), riskPct=0.9
gemini-3.1-pro-preview
bare
✗ fail
action shortsize 10.51entry 73.23invalidation 76.53riskPct 0.9confidence 1
Position size is capped by the hard rule of 20% maximum notional per position ($770) rather than the risk limit, resulting in a realized risk of 0.90%.
⊢ size=10.51 (exp 14.5833, err 27.9%), riskPct=0.9
gemini-3.1-pro-preview
⚡ harness
✗ fail
action flatsize 10.51entry 73.23invalidation 76.53riskPct 0.9confidence 1
SOL is chopping near support with no clear edge, so the strict rule is to stand flat. Hypothetically, size is capped at 10.51 SOL by the 20% notional limit ($770), keeping actual risk at 0.9% and overriding the invalid 1.25% house rule.
⊢ size=10.51 (exp 14.5833, err 27.9%), riskPct=0.9
minimax-m3
bare
✓ pass
action shortsize 14.58entry 73.23invalidation 76.53riskPct 1.25confidence 0.5
Stop distance is 3.30 per SOL; 1.25% of $3850 = $48.13, so size = 48.13 / 3.30 = 14.58 SOL, risking exactly 1.25% of equity.
⊢ size=14.58 (exp 14.5833, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
minimax-m3
⚡ harness
✗ fail
action shortsize 10.52entry 73.23invalidation 76.53riskPct 0.9confidence 0.3
Stop distance = 76.53 − 73.23 = $3.30. The mandate's 1% risk cap ($38.50) would allow 11.67 SOL, but the 20% notional cap binds first: max notional = 0.20 × $3850 = $770 → 770 / 73.23 ≈ 10.52 SOL. Actual risk = 10.52 × 3.30 / 3850 ≈ 0.90%. Note: 'chopping near support' with no clear trend fails the no-edge gate — standing flat is the higher-EV choice even though the sizing math works.
⊢ size=10.52 (exp 14.5833, err 27.9%), riskPct=0.9
gpt-5.5
bare
✗ fail
action shortsize 10.5148riskPct 0.9013confidence 0.95
Stop distance is 3.30 USDT; the 1% mandate risk cap allows 11.6667 SOL, but the 20% max-notional cap limits size to 770/73.23 = 10.5148 SOL. Actual risk is 10.5148 * 3.30 = 34.70 USDT, or 0.9013% of the 3850 USDT account.
⊢ size=10.5148 (exp 14.5833, err 27.9%), riskPct=0.9013
gpt-5.5
⚡ harness
✗ fail
action shortsize 11.6667riskPct 1confidence 0.9
Using the stricter mandate cap of 1% risk: $3850 × 1% = $38.50 max risk. Stop distance is 76.53 - 73.23 = $3.30, so size is $38.50 / $3.30 = 11.6667 SOL.
⊢ size=11.6667 (exp 14.5833, err 20.0%), riskPct=1
qwen3.7-max
bare
✓ pass
action flatsize 14.58entry 73.23invalidation 76.53riskPct 1.25compliant falseconfidence 0
Calculated size is 14.58 SOL ($48.13 risk = 1.25% of $3,850), but this violates two hard rules: risk exceeds the 1% max (1.25% > 1%) and notional (~$1,068) is ~27.7% of equity, exceeding the 20% cap. Standing flat.
⊢ size=14.58 (exp 14.5833, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
qwen3.7-max
⚡ harness
✗ fail
action flatsize 10.51entry 73.23invalidation 76.53riskPct 0.9compliant falsemaxNotional 770confidence 0
Standing flat due to choppy action near support offering no edge. Additionally, the proposed 1.25% risk breaks the 1% hard rule, and the 1% risk size exceeds the 20% max notional limit, capping the theoretical size at 10.51 SOL (0.9% risk).
⊢ size=10.51 (exp 14.5833, err 27.9%), riskPct=0.9
grok-4.3
bare
✓ pass
action shortsize 14.5833riskPct 1.25confidence 0.8
Risk 1.25% of 3850 = $48.125; per-SOL risk 3.3 gives size 14.5833 SOL.
⊢ size=14.5833 (exp 14.5833, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
grok-4.3
⚡ harness
✗ fail
action flatconfidence 0.8
Chopping price action near support with no clear trend or edge; stand flat per no-edge gate.
⊢ missing size or riskPct
mimo-v2.5-pro
bare
✗ fail
action shortentry 73.23invalidation 76.53confidence 0.6
SOL is testing support with rising memecoin activity, suggesting a potential bounce, but the choppy price action and 1.25% risk limit suggest caution. Calculate size and riskPct based on the short position details.
⊢ missing size or riskPct
mimo-v2.5-pro
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action shortsize 14.46entry 73.23invalidation 76.53riskPct 1.25compliant trueconfidence 0.7
Risk amount is $48.125 (1.25% of $3850). Stop distance is 3.30 points. Size = 48.125 / 3.30 = 14.46 SOL. This gives actual risk of 1.25%.
⊢ size=14.46 (exp 14.5833, err 0.8%), riskPct=1.25
glm-5.1
bare
✓ pass
action shortsize 14.58entry 73.23invalidation 76.53riskPct 1.25confidence 0.5
Position size calculated by dividing the 1.25% risk allocation ($48.125) by the stop distance ($3.30), yielding 14.58 SOL and an exact risk of 1.25% of account equity.
⊢ size=14.58 (exp 14.5833, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
glm-5.1
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action shortsize 14.58sizePct 0.277entry 73.23invalidation 76.53takeProfit 66.63leverage 1riskPct 1.25compliant falsemaxNotional 1068.57rr 2confidence 0.4
Position size calculated from 1.25% risk over $3.30 stop distance yields 14.58 SOL; actual risk is 1.25% of equity. Note: this exceeds the 1% hard risk rule.
⊢ size=14.58 (exp 14.5833, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25