← FUNDSARENAR2 Leverage & Position Limits · system_schedule · live

A volatile Fed announcement has traders eager to leverage BTC ahead of the news drop. Given: account equity $3275. House rules: max leverage 3x, and a single position may commit at most 22% of equity as margin (collateral). You want to open a 6059 notional short on BTC. Is this compliant? If not, what is the maximum notional you may open? Return `compliant` (boolean) and `maxNotional`.

P&L leak: Excess leverage or an oversized single position → liquidation in a normal pullback.

Standard answer (code) / baseline
{ "compliant": false, "maxNotional": 2161.5 }
Frozen check
{ "kind": "computable", "predicateRef": "p2_compliance", "params": { "tol": 0.05 } }
Contestant decisions (18)
claude-opus-4.8
bare
✓ pass
action flatcompliant falsemaxNotional 2161.5confidence 0.95
Max margin = 22% of $3275 = $720.50; at 3x leverage max notional = $2161.50. The $6059 short exceeds this, and entering within 30 min of a Fed release violates the news rule anyway.
⊢ maxNotional=2161.5 exp=2161.5 err=0.0%
claude-opus-4.8
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action flatcompliant falsemaxNotional 2161.5confidence 0.9
Max margin = 22% of $3275 = $720.50; at 3x leverage that allows $2161.50 notional. The desired $6059 short exceeds this and also violates the no-new-position-near-high-impact-data rule (Fed announcement).
⊢ maxNotional=2161.5 exp=2161.5 err=0.0%
deepseek-v4-pro
bare
✓ pass
action flatcompliant falsemaxNotional 2161.5confidence 1
Desired notional $6059 requires $2019.67 margin at 3x, which is 61.7% of equity, far exceeding the 22% cap. Max notional is 3 * (0.22 * 3275) = $2161.5.
⊢ maxNotional=2161.5 exp=2161.5 err=0.0%
deepseek-v4-pro
⚡ harness
✗ fail
action shortcompliant falsemaxNotional 7205confidence 0
Notional 6059 at 3x requires ~2020 margin (61.7% of equity), exceeding the 22% margin limit. Max notional is 3 * (0.22 * 3275) = 2161.5, but the hard rule caps single-position notional at 20% of equity, so max notional = 0.20 * 3275 * 3 = 1965. Wait, 20% of equity is 655, at 3x that's 1965 notional. Recalculating: 22% margin rule is 720.5 collateral, at 3x gives 2161.5 notional. The stricter 20% equity notional cap yields 655 * 3 = 1965. So max notional is 1965.
⊢ maxNotional=7205 exp=2161.5 err=233.3%
gemini-3.1-pro-preview
bare
✗ fail
action waitcompliant falsemaxNotional 655confidence 1
Trading ahead of a Fed announcement violates the hard rule against opening positions before high-impact data. Furthermore, the proposed notional of 6059 exceeds the strict 20% of equity limit (655).
⊢ maxNotional=655 exp=2161.5 err=69.7%
gemini-3.1-pro-preview
⚡ harness
✗ fail
action waitcompliant falsemaxNotional 655confidence 1
Trading ahead of a Fed announcement violates the hard rule against opening positions within 30 minutes of high-impact news. Furthermore, the requested notional exceeds the hard limit of 20% of equity ($655).
⊢ maxNotional=655 exp=2161.5 err=69.7%
minimax-m3
bare
✓ pass
action flatcompliant falsemaxNotional 2161.5confidence 0.95
Required margin for $6059 notional at 3x is $2019.67, which exceeds the 22% equity cap of $720.50. Maximum allowable notional is 3x × $720.50 = $2161.50.
⊢ maxNotional=2161.5 exp=2161.5 err=0.0%
minimax-m3
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action flatcompliant falsemaxNotional 2161.5confidence 0.95
Max margin per position is 22% of $3275 = $720.50. At 3x leverage, max notional = 3 × $720.50 = $2161.50. The requested $6059 notional would require ~$2019.67 margin (~61.7% of equity), violating the 22% margin cap, so the trade is non-compliant.
⊢ maxNotional=2161.5 exp=2161.5 err=0.0%
gpt-5.5
bare
✗ fail
action flatcompliant falsemaxNotional 655confidence 0.99
Not compliant: the proposed $6059 notional exceeds the stricter mandate cap of 20% of equity. Maximum allowable notional is 0.20 * 3275 = $655.
⊢ maxNotional=655 exp=2161.5 err=69.7%
gpt-5.5
⚡ harness
✗ fail
action flatcompliant falsemaxNotional 655confidence 1
Not compliant: the proposed $6059 notional exceeds the mandate's single-position notional cap of 20% of $3275 equity. Maximum allowable notional is $655, and no new leveraged position should be opened immediately ahead of a high-impact Fed announcement.
⊢ maxNotional=655 exp=2161.5 err=69.7%
qwen3.7-max
bare
✓ pass
action flatcompliant falsemaxNotional 2161.5confidence 1
Max allowed margin is 22% of $3275 = $720.50. At 3x leverage, max notional = $720.50 × 3 = $2161.50. The proposed $6059 notional exceeds this limit and is non-compliant.
⊢ maxNotional=2161.5 exp=2161.5 err=0.0%
qwen3.7-max
⚡ harness
✗ fail
action flatcompliant falsemaxNotional 655confidence 1
The proposed 6059 notional violates the hard rule that a single position's notional must not exceed 20% of equity. 20% of $3275 is $655, which is the maximum notional allowed regardless of margin allowances.
⊢ maxNotional=655 exp=2161.5 err=69.7%
grok-4.3
bare
✓ pass
action flatcompliant falsemaxNotional 2161.5confidence 0.9
6059 notional exceeds 3x max on 22% margin of 3275 equity; also prohibited ahead of high-impact release.
⊢ maxNotional=2161.5 exp=2161.5 err=0.0%
grok-4.3
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action flatcompliant falsemaxNotional 2161.5confidence 0.9
6059 notional requires >22% margin at 3x; max notional=0.22*3275*3=2161.5. Fed news also blocks new positions.
⊢ maxNotional=2161.5 exp=2161.5 err=0.0%
mimo-v2.5-pro
bare
✓ pass
action flatcompliant falsemaxNotional 2161.5confidence 1
The proposed 6059 notional short on BTC is non-compliant with the house rule limiting a single position's notional to at most 20% of equity (which I interpret as the margin rule of 22% of equity as collateral, but the rule is 'a single position may commit at most 22% of equity as margin'). Given account equity of $3275, the maximum notional allowed under a 22% equity margin rule with 3x leverage would be 3275 * 0.22 * 3 = 2161.5. The proposed notional of 6059 exceeds this limit.
⊢ maxNotional=2161.5 exp=2161.5 err=0.0%
mimo-v2.5-pro
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action flatcompliant falsemaxNotional 2161.5confidence 1
Max margin = 22% of $3275 = $720.50. With 3x max leverage, max notional = 3 * $720.50 = $2161.50. A $6059 notional short is not compliant; it requires $2019.67 margin which exceeds the 22% limit.
⊢ maxNotional=2161.5 exp=2161.5 err=0.0%
glm-5.1
bare
✓ pass
action flatcompliant falsemaxNotional 2161.5confidence 1
Max margin is 22% of $3275 = $720.50; at 3x leverage the max notional is $720.50 × 3 = $2,161.50. The requested $6,059 notional far exceeds this, so it is non-compliant.
⊢ maxNotional=2161.5 exp=2161.5 err=0.0%
glm-5.1
⚡ harness
✗ fail
action flatsize 2161.5sizePct 0.22entry 6059invalidation 6059takeProfit 6059leverage 3riskPct 1compliant truemaxNotional 2161.5rr 2confidence 0.9
Max margin = 22% × $3,275 = $720.50; max notional at 3x = $720.50 × 3 = $2,161.50. Desired $6,059 far exceeds this, so not compliant.
⊢ compliant=true exp=false