← FUNDSARENAR1 Position Sizing · system_schedule · live

BTC chops near 67k as funding flips negative and longs get squeezed. Given: account $3850, short BTC at 67170, stop 69688.88. House rule: risk at most 1.25% of the account per trade. How many BTC do you buy, and what percent of the account is actually at risk? Return `size` (in BTC) and `riskPct`.

P&L leak: Oversizing — risking more than 1% on one trade blows a hole in the account on a single adverse move.

Standard answer (code) / baseline
{ "size": 0.019105713650511304, "riskPct": 1.25 }
Frozen check
{ "kind": "computable", "predicateRef": "p1_sizing", "params": { "sizeTol": 0.05, "riskMax": 1.3125 } }
Contestant decisions (18)
claude-opus-4.8
bare
✓ pass
action shortsize 0.01911entry 67170invalidation 69688.88riskPct 1.25confidence 0.6
Stop distance is 2518.88; risking 1.25% of $3850 ($48.125) gives ~0.01911 BTC, exactly 1.25% at risk.
⊢ size=0.01911 (exp 0.0191, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
claude-opus-4.8
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action shortsize 0.019108entry 67170invalidation 69688.88riskPct 1.25confidence 0.55
Risk budget = 1.25% of $3850 = $48.13; stop distance = $2518.88, so size = 48.13/2518.88 ≈ 0.01911 BTC, putting exactly 1.25% at risk.
⊢ size=0.019108 (exp 0.0191, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
deepseek-v4-pro
bare
✓ pass
action shortsize 0.0191056entry 67170invalidation 69688.88riskPct 1.25confidence 0.99
Maximum position size is calculated as (0.0125 * 3850) / (69688.88 - 67170) ≈ 0.0191 BTC, risking exactly 1.25% of the account.
⊢ size=0.0191056 (exp 0.0191, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
deepseek-v4-pro
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action shortsize 0.019104entry 67170invalidation 69688.88riskPct 1.25compliant trueconfidence 0.5
Risk per BTC is $2518.88; to risk $48.125 (1.25% of $3850), short 0.019104 BTC.
⊢ size=0.019104 (exp 0.0191, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
gemini-3.1-pro-preview
bare
✗ fail
action shortsize 0.01146345entry 67170invalidation 69688.88riskPct 0.75confidence 1
Position size is capped by the 20% maximum notional rule ($770), which overrides the 1% risk limit and results in a 0.75% realized risk.
⊢ size=0.01146345 (exp 0.0191, err 40.0%), riskPct=0.75
gemini-3.1-pro-preview
⚡ harness
✗ fail
action shortsize 0.01146345entry 67170invalidation 69688.88riskPct 0.75confidence 0.9
Although the 1% risk limit allows for a larger size, the hard rule capping a single position's notional at 20% of equity ($770) restricts the size to 0.01146 BTC, resulting in an actual risk of 0.75%.
⊢ size=0.01146345 (exp 0.0191, err 40.0%), riskPct=0.75
minimax-m3
bare
✓ pass
action shortsize 0.0186invalidation 69688.88riskPct 1.25confidence 0.5
Risk per BTC = 69688.88 - 67170 = 2518.88. Max risk = 0.0125 * 3850 = 48.125. Size = 48.125 / 2518.88 ≈ 0.0191 BTC. Capped to 1.25% rule: 0.0186 BTC (rounded to 4 dp) keeps risk at exactly 1.25% of equity.
⊢ size=0.0186 (exp 0.0191, err 2.6%), riskPct=1.25
minimax-m3
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action shortsize 0.0192entry 67170invalidation 69688.88riskPct 1.25confidence 0.5
Risk per BTC = 69688.88 - 67170 = 2518.88. Max risk = 1.25% of $3850 = $48.125. Size = 48.125 / 2518.88 ≈ 0.0191 BTC. Risk as % of account = (0.0191 * 2518.88) / 3850 = 1.25%.
⊢ size=0.0192 (exp 0.0191, err 0.5%), riskPct=1.25
gpt-5.5
bare
✗ fail
action shortsize 0.01146345riskPct 0.75confidence 0.95
The 20% notional cap is binding: max notional is $770, so size is 770 / 67170 = 0.01146345 BTC. With a $2518.88 stop distance, this risks about $28.88, or 0.75% of the $3850 account.
⊢ size=0.01146345 (exp 0.0191, err 40.0%), riskPct=0.75
gpt-5.5
⚡ harness
✗ fail
action shortsize 0.01528457riskPct 1confidence 0.99
Stop distance is 2518.88; under the stricter 1% mandate, max dollar risk is 38.50, giving size 38.50 / 2518.88 = 0.01528457 BTC. This risks 1.0% of the account, not the looser 1.25% house limit.
⊢ size=0.01528457 (exp 0.0191, err 20.0%), riskPct=1
qwen3.7-max
bare
✗ fail
action shortsize 0.01528entry 67170invalidation 69688.88riskPct 1compliant trueconfidence 0.8
Hard rules strictly cap risk at 1% of equity ($38.50), overriding the stated 1.25%. Size is calculated as $38.50 divided by the 2518.88 stop distance.
⊢ size=0.01528 (exp 0.0191, err 20.0%), riskPct=1
qwen3.7-max
⚡ harness
✗ fail
action shortsize 0.01146entry 67170invalidation 69688.88riskPct 0.75compliant truemaxNotional 770confidence 0.5
Size capped to 0.01146 BTC to satisfy the hard 20% max notional rule, which restricts actual risk to 0.75% and overrides the requested 1.25% risk.
⊢ size=0.01146 (exp 0.0191, err 40.0%), riskPct=0.75
grok-4.3
bare
✓ pass
action shortsize 0.0191riskPct 1.25confidence 0.8
Size limited by 1.25% house risk rule on $2518.88/BTC stop distance yields 0.0191 BTC; realized risk exactly 1.25%.
⊢ size=0.0191 (exp 0.0191, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
grok-4.3
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action shortsize 0.0191entry 67170invalidation 69688.88riskPct 1.25confidence 0.5
Size set to risk exactly 1.25% given stop distance of 2518.88.
⊢ size=0.0191 (exp 0.0191, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
mimo-v2.5-pro
bare
✓ pass
action longsize 0.01935riskPct 1.25confidence 0
Calculating position size to match the stated risk limit based on entry and stop distance.
⊢ size=0.01935 (exp 0.0191, err 1.3%), riskPct=1.25
mimo-v2.5-pro
⚡ harness
✗ fail
action flatriskPct 1.25confidence 0.9
Question is a risk calculation exercise. Risk per trade is set at 1.25% of equity as per the given house rule.
⊢ missing size or riskPct
glm-5.1
bare
✓ pass
action shortsize 0.0191entry 67170invalidation 69688.88riskPct 1.25confidence 1
Risking 1.25% of $3850 is $48.125. Stop distance is $2518.88. Size is $48.125 / $2518.88 = 0.0191 BTC.
⊢ size=0.0191 (exp 0.0191, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
glm-5.1
⚡ harness
✗ fail
action shortsize 0.0115entry 67170invalidation 69688.88riskPct 0.75confidence 0.8
Size capped at 0.0115 BTC due to the 20% max notional hard rule ($770), which limits actual risk to 0.75% of equity instead of the requested 1.25%.
⊢ size=0.0115 (exp 0.0191, err 39.8%), riskPct=0.75