← FUNDSARENAR1 Position Sizing · system_schedule · live

SOL chops sideways as traders eye a key support retest. Given: account $3275, short SOL at 72.94, stop 77.68. House rule: risk at most 1.25% of the account per trade. How many SOL do you buy, and what percent of the account is actually at risk? Return `size` (in SOL) and `riskPct`.

P&L leak: Oversizing — risking more than 1% on one trade blows a hole in the account on a single adverse move.

Standard answer (code) / baseline
{ "size": 8.63660337552741, "riskPct": 1.25 }
Frozen check
{ "kind": "computable", "predicateRef": "p1_sizing", "params": { "sizeTol": 0.05, "riskMax": 1.3125 } }
Contestant decisions (18)
claude-opus-4.8
bare
✓ pass
action shortsize 8.63entry 72.94invalidation 77.68riskPct 1.25confidence 0.6
Risk budget = 1.25% of $3275 = $40.94; stop distance = $4.74, so size = 40.94/4.74 ≈ 8.63 SOL, putting exactly 1.25% at risk.
⊢ size=8.63 (exp 8.6366, err 0.1%), riskPct=1.25
claude-opus-4.8
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action shortsize 8.63entry 72.94invalidation 77.68riskPct 1.25confidence 0.5
Risk budget = 1.25% of $3275 = $40.94; stop distance = 4.74; size = 40.94/4.74 ≈ 8.63 SOL, putting exactly 1.25% at risk.
⊢ size=8.63 (exp 8.6366, err 0.1%), riskPct=1.25
deepseek-v4-pro
bare
✓ pass
action shortsize 8.637entry 72.94invalidation 77.68riskPct 1.25confidence 0.9
Max risk of 1.25% of $3275 is $40.94; with a stop loss distance of $4.74 per SOL, the appropriate short size is 8.637 SOL, risking exactly 1.25% of the account.
⊢ size=8.637 (exp 8.6366, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
deepseek-v4-pro
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action shortsize 8.6366riskPct 1.25confidence 0.5
Max risk $40.94 (1.25% of $3275) divided by loss per SOL $4.74 gives size ~8.64 SOL. Actual risk is exactly 1.25% of account.
⊢ size=8.6366 (exp 8.6366, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
gemini-3.1-pro-preview
bare
✗ fail
action shortsize 6.9entry 72.94invalidation 77.68riskPct 1confidence 1
The hard rule strictly limits risk to 1% of account equity, overriding the 1.25% house rule. At a $4.74 risk per SOL, 1% equity ($32.75) allows for a maximum size of 6.9 SOL.
⊢ size=6.9 (exp 8.6366, err 20.1%), riskPct=1
gemini-3.1-pro-preview
⚡ harness
✗ fail
action shortsize 6.91entry 72.94invalidation 77.68riskPct 1confidence 1
Capping risk at the hard rule limit of 1% instead of the suggested 1.25%, resulting in a maximum position size of 6.91 SOL.
⊢ size=6.91 (exp 8.6366, err 20.0%), riskPct=1
minimax-m3
bare
✓ pass
action shortsize 8.65entry 72.94invalidation 77.68riskPct 1.25confidence 0.5
Risk per SOL = 77.68 - 72.94 = 4.74. Max risk $ = 3275 * 0.0125 = 40.94. Size = 40.94 / 4.74 ≈ 8.64 SOL, rounding to 8.65. Risk% = 1.25% of account.
⊢ size=8.65 (exp 8.6366, err 0.2%), riskPct=1.25
minimax-m3
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action shortsize 8.64entry 72.94invalidation 77.68riskPct 0.0125compliant trueconfidence 0.5
Risk per SOL = |77.68 - 72.94| = 4.74. Max risk = 1.25% of $3275 = $40.94. Size = 40.94 / 4.74 ≈ 8.64 SOL, so actual risk ≈ 1.25% of account.
⊢ size=8.64 (exp 8.6366, err 0.0%), riskPct=0.0125
gpt-5.5
bare
✗ fail
action shortsize 6.9093riskPct 1confidence 0.99
Stop distance is 4.74, and the stricter 1% mandate caps risk at $32.75, giving 6.9093 SOL. The requested 1.25% house-rule sizing would exceed the mandate, so it is not used.
⊢ size=6.9093 (exp 8.6366, err 20.0%), riskPct=1
gpt-5.5
⚡ harness
✗ fail
action shortsize 6.9riskPct 0.9986confidence 0.9
Using the stricter 1% mandate over the stated 1.25% house rule: risk budget is $32.75 and stop distance is $4.74, so max size is about 6.9 SOL with just under 1% equity at risk.
⊢ size=6.9 (exp 8.6366, err 20.1%), riskPct=0.9986
qwen3.7-max
bare
✗ fail
action shortsize 6.9093entry 72.94invalidation 77.68takeProfit 63.46leverage 1riskPct 1compliant truerr 2confidence 0.8
System hard rules strictly cap risk at 1% of equity, overriding the 1.25% suggestion. Position size is the $32.75 max risk divided by the $4.74 stop distance.
⊢ size=6.9093 (exp 8.6366, err 20.0%), riskPct=1
qwen3.7-max
⚡ harness
✗ fail
action shortsize 6.9093entry 72.94invalidation 77.68takeProfit 63.46riskPct 1compliant truerr 2confidence 0.5
Hard rules cap risk at 1% of equity, overriding the 1.25% prompt suggestion. Shorting SOL with a 2R target maintains compliance and positive expectancy.
⊢ size=6.9093 (exp 8.6366, err 20.0%), riskPct=1
grok-4.3
bare
✓ pass
action shortsize 8.636riskPct 1.25confidence 0.9
Position sized to house-rule max risk of 1.25% using 4.74 stop distance on $3275 account.
⊢ size=8.636 (exp 8.6366, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
grok-4.3
⚡ harness
✗ fail
action flatconfidence 0
No edge: SOL chops sideways with weak trend.
⊢ missing size or riskPct
mimo-v2.5-pro
bare
✗ fail
action shortsize 0.866entry 72.94invalidation 77.68riskPct 1.25confidence 0.8
Risk per trade is capped at 1.25% of account equity ($3275 * 0.0125 = $40.94). With a stop distance of $4.74 (77.68 - 72.94), the position size is $40.94 / $4.74 = 8.64 SOL, so size = 8.64 SOL and riskPct = 1.25%.
⊢ size=0.866 (exp 8.6366, err 90.0%), riskPct=1.25
mimo-v2.5-pro
⚡ harness
✗ fail
action shortentry 72.94invalidation 77.68riskPct 1.25confidence 0.5
SOL is chopping sideways, indicating a lack of a clear trend. No high-conviction edge exists, so the prudent action is to stand flat and wait for a better setup.
⊢ missing size or riskPct
glm-5.1
bare
✓ pass
action shortsize 8.6326entry 72.94invalidation 77.68riskPct 1.25confidence 0.8
Position size is calculated by dividing the maximum risk amount ($40.9375, which is 1.25% of $3275) by the stop distance ($4.74), resulting in 8.6326 SOL and an actual risk of 1.25% of account equity.
⊢ size=8.6326 (exp 8.6366, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
glm-5.1
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action shortsize 8.63riskPct 1.25confidence 0.5
Position size calculated as (3275 * 0.0125) / (77.68 - 72.94) = 8.636 SOL, rounded down to 8.63 SOL to keep risk within the 1.25% house rule limit, resulting in an actual risk of 1.25% of account equity.
⊢ size=8.63 (exp 8.6366, err 0.1%), riskPct=1.25