← FUNDSARENAR3 Stand Flat Discipline · system_schedule · live

ETH live read — price 1792.6 · 1h-ATR 0.91% (volatility) · ADX 10 (trend strength; <20 ≈ no trend) · funding 0.0013%/8h · OI $810863 · tracked addresses 0L/1S (net $-1314). A momentum bot just flagged a possible entry on this tick. Per your mandate you only take trades with a clear edge. What is your action this hand on ETH? If you trade, give entry/stop/size; otherwise return action=flat.

P&L leak: Overtrading a no-edge chop bleeds fees and gets whipsawed.

Standard answer (code) / baseline
{ "shouldFlat": true }
Frozen check
{ "kind": "computable", "predicateRef": "p3_flat", "params": null }
Contestant decisions (18)
claude-opus-4.8
bare
✓ pass
action flatconfidence 0.8
ADX 10 signals no trend and ATR under 1% is low volatility, so the momentum flag lacks edge. Standing flat is the correct action.
⊢ action=flat (expected flat)
claude-opus-4.8
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action flatconfidence 0.8
ADX 10 signals no trend, ATR sub-1% is low volatility, funding neutral, and smart-money flow is negligible — no edge, so stand flat.
⊢ action=flat (expected flat)
deepseek-v4-pro
bare
✓ pass
action flatconfidence 0.9
ADX 10 indicates no trend; without a clear edge, mandate requires staying flat.
⊢ action=flat (expected flat)
deepseek-v4-pro
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action flatconfidence 0.1
ADX 10 shows no trend; funding is neutral and smart money net short is trivial. No clear edge, so standing flat per no-edge gate.
⊢ action=flat (expected flat)
gemini-3.1-pro-preview
bare
✓ pass
action flatconfidence 1
ADX is at 10, indicating no clear trend. Per the mandate, when there is no edge, standing flat is the correct action.
⊢ action=flat (expected flat)
gemini-3.1-pro-preview
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action flatconfidence 1
ADX is 10 indicating no trend, funding is neutral, and smart money positioning is negligible. Per the no-edge gate, standing flat is required.
⊢ action=flat (expected flat)
minimax-m3
bare
✓ pass
action flatconfidence 0.9
ADX at 10 confirms no trend (<20 threshold), tracked-address signal is trivial (1S, net -$1314), and funding is uninformative. Mandate requires a clear edge before entry; none is present, so stand flat.
⊢ action=flat (expected flat)
minimax-m3
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action flatconfidence 0.15
No-edge gate triggered: ADX 10 (no trend), funding neutral, and smart-money signal is a single address with negligible -$1314 net. This is a chop board — a momentum bot flag on a trendless tape is a coin-flip, not an edge. Standing flat.
⊢ action=flat (expected flat)
gpt-5.5
bare
✓ pass
action flatconfidence 0.82
No trade: ADX 10 indicates no clear trend, volatility is modest, and the address/OI/funding signals do not provide a strong directional edge. A single momentum tick is insufficient under the mandate, so standing flat is preferred.
⊢ action=flat (expected flat)
gpt-5.5
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action flatconfidence 0.86
No-edge gate triggered: ADX 10 indicates no trend, funding is near neutral, and tracked positioning is minimal. A momentum tick alone is insufficient in chop, so standing flat avoids churn.
⊢ action=flat (expected flat)
qwen3.7-max
bare
✓ pass
action flatconfidence 0.95
ADX at 10 indicates a complete lack of trend and volatility is low, providing no clear edge. Mandate dictates standing flat when there is no trend or unclear signal.
⊢ action=flat (expected flat)
qwen3.7-max
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action flatconfidence 0
ADX at 10 indicates no trend, volatility is low, and smart-money positioning is unclear. The no-edge gate dictates standing flat when there is no clear directional advantage.
⊢ action=flat (expected flat)
grok-4.3
bare
✓ pass
action flatconfidence 0.9
ADX 10 signals no trend and unclear edge; mandate requires standing flat.
⊢ action=flat (expected flat)
grok-4.3
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action flatconfidence 0.9
ADX 10 signals no trend; funding neutral and smart-money flow negligible — no edge per mandate.
⊢ action=flat (expected flat)
mimo-v2.5-pro
bare
✓ pass
action flatconfidence 0.9
ADX at 10 indicates no discernible trend, and volatility is low. There is no clear edge to justify a trade per the mandate.
⊢ action=flat (expected flat)
mimo-v2.5-pro
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action flatconfidence 0.15
ADX=10 indicates no trend, 1h-ATR=0.91% is low volatility, funding is neutral, and smart money is net short but with minimal conviction ($-1314). No edge exists; the momentum bot signal is noise on a choppy board.
⊢ action=flat (expected flat)
glm-5.1
bare
✓ pass
action flatconfidence 0.95
ADX at 10 indicates no trend; mandate requires standing flat when there is no edge, overriding the momentum bot signal.
⊢ action=flat (expected flat)
glm-5.1
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action flatconfidence 0.1
ADX 10 signals no trend, volatility is low, funding neutral, and smart-money positioning is unclear; no edge exists, standing flat per mandate.
⊢ action=flat (expected flat)