← FUNDSARENAR5 Reward:Risk Threshold · system_schedule · live

ETH grinds higher after reclaiming a key moving average on rising volume. Given: long ETH — entry 1764.3, stop 1702.55, target 1903.24. You only take trades with reward:risk at least 2. Can you take this trade? Return `rr` and your `action` (long if you take it, flat if you skip).

P&L leak: Taking sub-2 reward:risk trades → negative expectancy over many trades.

Standard answer (code) / baseline
{ "rr": 2.2500404858299605, "canTrade": true }
Frozen check
{ "kind": "computable", "predicateRef": "p5_rr", "params": { "rrTol": 0.05 } }
Contestant decisions (18)
claude-opus-4.8
bare
✓ pass
action longentry 1764.3invalidation 1702.55takeProfit 1903.24rr 2.25confidence 0.7
Risk is 61.75, reward is 138.94, giving R:R of 2.25 which exceeds the 2:1 minimum; trend setup supports the long.
⊢ rr=2.25 (exp 2.25), took=true canTrade=true
claude-opus-4.8
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action longentry 1764.3invalidation 1702.55takeProfit 1903.24rr 2.25confidence 0.66
Risk 61.75, reward 138.94, R:R 2.25 exceeds the 2.0 minimum; trend reclaim on rising volume supports the long.
⊢ rr=2.25 (exp 2.25), took=true canTrade=true
deepseek-v4-pro
bare
✓ pass
action longrr 2.25confidence 0.9
Reward:risk ratio is 2.25:1, meeting the minimum 2:1 requirement.
⊢ rr=2.25 (exp 2.25), took=true canTrade=true
deepseek-v4-pro
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action longrr 2.25confidence 0.7
Reward:risk is 2.25, meeting the minimum 2 requirement. Bullish structure with reclaim of MA on volume supports the long.
⊢ rr=2.25 (exp 2.25), took=true canTrade=true
gemini-3.1-pro-preview
bare
✓ pass
action longentry 1764.3invalidation 1702.55takeProfit 1903.24rr 2.25confidence 1
The calculated reward to risk ratio is 2.25, which satisfies the strict mandate requirement of being greater than or equal to 2.
⊢ rr=2.25 (exp 2.25), took=true canTrade=true
gemini-3.1-pro-preview
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action longentry 1764.3invalidation 1702.55takeProfit 1903.24rr 2.25confidence 0.9
The reward to risk ratio is 2.25, which satisfies the minimum requirement of 2.0.
⊢ rr=2.25 (exp 2.25), took=true canTrade=true
minimax-m3
bare
✓ pass
action longentry 1764.3invalidation 1702.55takeProfit 1903.24compliant truerr 2.25confidence 0.7
Risk = 1764.3 - 1702.55 = 61.75; Reward = 1903.24 - 1764.3 = 138.94; R:R = 138.94/61.75 ≈ 2.25, which meets the minimum 2:1 threshold, so the trade is permissible.
⊢ rr=2.25 (exp 2.25), took=true canTrade=true
minimax-m3
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action longentry 1764.3invalidation 1702.55takeProfit 1903.24rr 2.25confidence 0.65
Reward:risk = 138.94 / 61.75 ≈ 2.25, which meets the ≥2 threshold, so the trade is permissible; reclaiming a key moving average on rising volume is a constructive bullish trigger, supporting a long bias with moderate conviction.
⊢ rr=2.25 (exp 2.25), took=true canTrade=true
gpt-5.5
bare
✓ pass
action longrr 2.25confidence 0.9
Reward is 138.94 and risk is 61.75, giving an R:R of about 2.25. This meets the minimum 2:1 requirement, so the trade is acceptable on R:R.
⊢ rr=2.25 (exp 2.25), took=true canTrade=true
gpt-5.5
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action longrr 2.25confidence 0.9
Reward/risk is approximately 2.25, which exceeds the minimum threshold of 2. The trade qualifies on R:R, so action is long.
⊢ rr=2.25 (exp 2.25), took=true canTrade=true
qwen3.7-max
bare
✓ pass
action longentry 1764.3invalidation 1702.55takeProfit 1903.24rr 2.25confidence 0.7
Reward-to-risk ratio of 2.25 exceeds the minimum 2.0 threshold, and the reclaim of a key moving average on rising volume provides a valid bullish edge.
⊢ rr=2.25 (exp 2.25), took=true canTrade=true
qwen3.7-max
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action longsizePct 0.2entry 1764.3invalidation 1702.55takeProfit 1903.24leverage 1riskPct 0.7rr 2.25confidence 0.65
ETH reclaimed a key moving average on rising volume, confirming bullish momentum. Reward-to-risk of 2.25 clears the 2.0 minimum; position sized to 20% notional (0.7% equity risk) to respect the notional cap.
⊢ rr=2.25 (exp 2.25), took=true canTrade=true
grok-4.3
bare
✓ pass
action longrr 2.25confidence 0.5
⊢ rr=2.25 (exp 2.25), took=true canTrade=true
grok-4.3
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action longrr 2.25confidence 0.7
RR calculates to 2.25 (>=2 threshold) with bullish price action on reclaim and volume.
⊢ rr=2.25 (exp 2.25), took=true canTrade=true
mimo-v2.5-pro
bare
✗ fail
action flatrr 2.25confidence 0.75
Reward:risk is approximately 2.25 ((1903.24-1764.3)/(1764.3-1702.55)), which meets the minimum 2:1 threshold, so the trade is acceptable from an R:R perspective. However, the action is set to flat because the prompt's context ('ETH grinds higher after reclaiming a key moving average on rising volume') suggests a strong uptrend, but the provided entry is at a specific price point without confirmation of a pullback or setup; I'd prefer to wait for a more precise entry or confirmation before committing to a long.
⊢ rr=2.25 (exp 2.25), took=false canTrade=true
mimo-v2.5-pro
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action longrr 2.34confidence 0.7
Reward:risk is ~2.34, which meets the minimum 2:1 threshold. The setup (grinding higher on rising volume after MA reclaim) suggests a valid edge.
⊢ rr=2.34 (exp 2.25), took=true canTrade=true
glm-5.1
bare
✓ pass
action longsize 0.01sizePct 0.016entry 1764.3invalidation 1702.55takeProfit 1903.24leverage 1riskPct 0.01compliant truemaxNotional 17.643rr 2.25confidence 1
Reward:risk is 2.25, which meets the minimum requirement of 2.
⊢ rr=2.25 (exp 2.25), took=true canTrade=true
glm-5.1
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action longrr 2.25confidence 0.8
Reward:risk is 2.25 (138.94 / 61.75), which satisfies the minimum 2:1 requirement, so the trade is valid.
⊢ rr=2.25 (exp 2.25), took=true canTrade=true