← FUNDSARENAR3 Stand Flat Discipline · system_schedule · live

ETH live read — price 1795.6 · 1h-ATR 0.92% (volatility) · ADX 14 (trend strength; <20 ≈ no trend) · funding 0.0013%/8h · OI $816904 · tracked addresses 0L/1S (net $-1314). A couple of small accounts just nibbled long right here. Per your mandate you only take trades with a clear edge. What is your action this hand on ETH? If you trade, give entry/stop/size; otherwise return action=flat.

P&L leak: Overtrading a no-edge chop bleeds fees and gets whipsawed.

Standard answer (code) / baseline
{ "shouldFlat": true }
Frozen check
{ "kind": "computable", "predicateRef": "p3_flat", "params": null }
Contestant decisions (18)
claude-opus-4.8
bare
✓ pass
action flatconfidence 0.8
ADX 14 signals no trend, ATR under 1% means low volatility, and funding/positioning are neutral — no clear edge. A couple of small accounts nibbling long is not a signal. Stand flat.
action=flat (expected flat)
claude-opus-4.8
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action flatconfidence 0.85
ADX 14 signals no trend, ATR sub-1% is low volatility, funding is neutral and tracked addresses are net short tiny size — no edge. A couple of small nibbles long is not a signal worth fading or following; stand flat.
action=flat (expected flat)
deepseek-v4-pro
bare
✓ pass
action flatconfidence 0.9
ADX 14 indicates no trend; low volatility and mixed positioning with no clear edge. Standing flat as per mandate.
action=flat (expected flat)
deepseek-v4-pro
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action flatconfidence 0
ADX 14 indicates no trend, volatility is low, funding is neutral, and net smart-money flow is flat. No edge gate triggered — standing flat per mandate.
action=flat (expected flat)
gemini-3.1-pro-preview
bare
✓ pass
action flatconfidence 1
ADX is at 14 indicating no clear trend, and per the mandate, I must stand flat when there is no edge.
action=flat (expected flat)
gemini-3.1-pro-preview
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action flatconfidence 1
ADX at 14 indicates no trend, volatility is low, and smart money is not clearly positioned. Per the mandate, with no clear edge in a choppy market, the correct action is to stand flat.
action=flat (expected flat)
minimax-m3
bare
✓ pass
action flatconfidence 0.82
ADX 14 confirms no trend; smart-money flow is net short (1S/0L); OI is thin (~$817K) and the only long signal is from small accounts — no edge. Standing flat per mandate.
action=flat (expected flat)
minimax-m3
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action flatconfidence 0.18
No-edge gate triggered: ADX 14 = no trend, funding neutral, smart-money not clearly positioned (one tiny short + a couple of small long nibbles is not a signal). Chop board → stand flat per mandate.
action=flat (expected flat)
gpt-5.5
bare
✓ pass
action flatconfidence 0.82
ADX 14 indicates no clear trend and the small account long nibble is not a sufficient edge. With low/unclear signal quality, standing flat preserves capital under the mandate.
action=flat (expected flat)
gpt-5.5
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action flatconfidence 0.82
No-edge gate: ADX 14 indicates weak/no trend, funding is neutral, and tracked-address positioning is small and not clearly bullish. Small-account long nibbles are insufficient edge, so stand flat and avoid churn.
action=flat (expected flat)
qwen3.7-max
bare
✓ pass
action flatconfidence 0
ADX at 14 indicates no trend and ATR shows low volatility, meaning there is no clear edge. Standing flat as per mandate.
action=flat (expected flat)
qwen3.7-max
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action flatconfidence 0.05
ADX is 14 indicating no trend, volatility is low, and smart money positioning is negligible; passing the no-edge gate and standing flat to avoid chop.
action=flat (expected flat)
grok-4.3
bare
✓ pass
action flatconfidence 0.9
ADX 14 signals no trend; no clear edge per mandate so stand flat.
action=flat (expected flat)
grok-4.3
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action flatconfidence 0.1
ADX 14 signals no trend; funding neutral and smart-money flow unclear. No edge per mandate.
action=flat (expected flat)
mimo-v2.5-pro
bare
✓ pass
action flatconfidence 0.9
ADX at 14 indicates no clear trend, making a directional trade a guess rather than an edge. Standing flat is the correct action when volatility is low and trend strength is weak.
action=flat (expected flat)
mimo-v2.5-pro
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action flatconfidence 0.1
No clear edge: ADX 14 indicates no trend, volatility is low (1h-ATR 0.92%), funding is neutral, and smart-money positioning (0L/1S) is not clearly aligned. Small account nibbles are not a signal. Stand flat per mandate.
action=flat (expected flat)
glm-5.1
bare
✓ pass
action flatconfidence 0.85
ADX 14 signals no trend, ATR 0.92% is low volatility, and tracked addresses show negligible smart-money activity (net -$1314 from one small short). Small-account long nibbles are not an edge; mandate requires standing flat when there is no clear trend or signal.
action=flat (expected flat)
glm-5.1
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action flatconfidence 0.15
ADX 14 (no trend), low volatility, neutral funding, and no smart-money positioning — all four no-edge gate conditions met. Small retail longs are noise, not an edge. Standing flat per mandate.
action=flat (expected flat)