← FUNDSARENAR1 Position Sizing · system_schedule · live

HYPE just printed a fresh local high as funding flips positive across the board. Given: account $3850, short HYPE at 72.4, stop 75.12. House rule: risk at most 1.25% of the account per trade. How many HYPE do you buy, and what percent of the account is actually at risk? Return `size` (in HYPE) and `riskPct`.

P&L leak: Oversizing — risking more than 1% on one trade blows a hole in the account on a single adverse move.

Standard answer (code) / baseline
{ "size": 17.69301470588236, "riskPct": 1.25 }
Frozen check
{ "kind": "computable", "predicateRef": "p1_sizing", "params": { "sizeTol": 0.05, "riskMax": 1.3125 } }
Contestant decisions (18)
claude-opus-4.8
bare
✓ pass
action shortsize 17.69entry 72.4invalidation 75.12riskPct 1.25confidence 0.5
Risk budget = 1.25% of $3850 = $48.13; stop distance = 2.72, so size = 48.13/2.72 ≈ 17.69 HYPE, risking 1.25% of equity.
⊢ size=17.69 (exp 17.6930, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
claude-opus-4.8
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action shortsize 17.69entry 72.4invalidation 75.12riskPct 1.25confidence 0.5
Risk budget = 1.25% of $3850 = $48.13; stop distance = 75.12-72.4 = 2.72, so size = 48.13/2.72 ≈ 17.69 HYPE, risking exactly 1.25% of the account.
⊢ size=17.69 (exp 17.6930, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
deepseek-v4-pro
bare
✓ pass
action shortsize 17.693entry 72.4invalidation 75.12riskPct 1.25compliant trueconfidence 1
Short HYPE with stop distance $2.72. Risk 1.25% of $3850 equity equals $48.125. Size = risk / distance = 48.125 / 2.72 ≈ 17.693 HYPE. Actual risk percent = 1.25%.
⊢ size=17.693 (exp 17.6930, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
deepseek-v4-pro
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action shortsize 17.69entry 72.4invalidation 75.12riskPct 1.25confidence 0.5
Max risk 1.25% of $3850 = $48.125. Risk per HYPE = $75.12 - $72.4 = $2.72. Size = 48.125 / 2.72 ≈ 17.69 HYPE. Actual risk is exactly 1.25% of account.
⊢ size=17.69 (exp 17.6930, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
gemini-3.1-pro-preview
bare
✗ fail
action shortsize 10.635entry 72.4invalidation 75.12riskPct 0.751confidence 1
The hard rule caps risk at 1% (overriding the 1.25% suggestion) and max notional at 20% of equity ($770). The notional limit is the bottleneck here, restricting the position size to 10.635 HYPE and the realized risk to 0.751%.
⊢ size=10.635 (exp 17.6930, err 39.9%), riskPct=0.751
gemini-3.1-pro-preview
⚡ harness
✗ fail
action shortsize 10.635sizePct 0.2entry 72.4invalidation 75.12takeProfit 66.96leverage 1riskPct 0.75rr 2confidence 0.9
Hard rules cap a single position's notional at 20% of equity ($770), restricting the position size to 10.635 HYPE. This keeps the realized risk at 0.75%, overriding the user's 1.25% rule to comply with the strict 1% maximum risk limit.
⊢ size=10.635 (exp 17.6930, err 39.9%), riskPct=0.75
minimax-m3
bare
✓ pass
action shortsize 17.69entry 72.4invalidation 75.12riskPct 0.0125compliant falsemaxNotional 770confidence 0.4
Per 1.25% rule: $48.13 risk / 2.72 stop = 17.69 HYPE, risk = 1.25%. However notional = $1280.76 = 33.3% of equity, breaching the 20% hard cap. Compliant alternative: size = 10.64 HYPE at max $770 notional, giving only ~0.75% actual risk.
⊢ size=17.69 (exp 17.6930, err 0.0%), riskPct=0.0125
minimax-m3
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action shortsize 17.69entry 72.4invalidation 75.12riskPct 1.25compliant trueconfidence 0.5
Risk per HYPE = 75.12 - 72.4 = 2.72. Max risk = 1.25% × $3850 = $48.125. Size = 48.125 / 2.72 ≈ 17.69 HYPE. RiskPct = 1.25%.
⊢ size=17.69 (exp 17.6930, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
gpt-5.5
bare
✗ fail
action shortsize 14.1544117647riskPct 1confidence 0.99
Stop distance is 2.72 HYPE; applying the 1% mandate risk cap gives $38.50 max risk, so size is 38.50 / 2.72 = 14.1544 HYPE. This risks 1.0% of the account, overriding the higher 1.25% house rule.
⊢ size=14.1544117647 (exp 17.6930, err 20.0%), riskPct=1
gpt-5.5
⚡ harness
✗ fail
action shortsize 10.635359riskPct 0.751439confidence 0.99
Stop distance is 2.72; the 1% hard-risk cap allows 14.154 HYPE, but the 20% max-notional rule caps position size to 770 / 72.4 = 10.635359 HYPE. Actual risk is 10.635359 * 2.72 = $28.93, or 0.751439% of the $3850 account.
⊢ size=10.635359 (exp 17.6930, err 39.9%), riskPct=0.751439
qwen3.7-max
bare
✓ pass
action flatsize 17.69entry 72.4invalidation 75.12riskPct 1.25compliant falseconfidence 0
Calculated size is 17.69 HYPE at 1.25% risk ($48.13 / $2.72 stop distance), but this violates two hard rules: risk exceeds the 1% max cap and notional ($1,281) exceeds the 20% equity limit ($770). Standing flat.
⊢ size=17.69 (exp 17.6930, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
qwen3.7-max
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action flatsize 17.69entry 72.4invalidation 75.12riskPct 1.25compliant falseconfidence 0
Pure calculation: $48.125 risk (1.25% of $3,850) / $2.72 stop distance = 17.69 HYPE. However, this violates hard rules: risk exceeds the 1% cap and notional ($1,281) is 33.3% of equity, breaching the 20% single-position limit. Standing flat.
⊢ size=17.69 (exp 17.6930, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
grok-4.3
bare
✓ pass
action shortsize 17.69riskPct 1.25confidence 0.8
Risk budget 48.125 USD divided by 2.72 USD per HYPE yields size 17.69; using full 1.25% house-rule risk.
⊢ size=17.69 (exp 17.6930, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
grok-4.3
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action shortsize 17.692279411764705riskPct 1.25confidence 0
⊢ size=17.692279411764705 (exp 17.6930, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
mimo-v2.5-pro
bare
✗ fail
action flatconfidence 0.8
The question is a compliance check on a proposed trade, not a request for a new position. The trade described (short HYPE) has a stop loss that risks more than the house rule allows. I will not take the trade as described and am standing flat to remain compliant.
⊢ missing size or riskPct
mimo-v2.5-pro
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action shortsize 17.65entry 72.4invalidation 75.12riskPct 1.25confidence 0.6
Funding flipped positive indicates crowding longs, and the local high provides a logical invalidation point; size calculated to risk exactly 1.25% of the $3850 account on this short.
⊢ size=17.65 (exp 17.6930, err 0.2%), riskPct=1.25
glm-5.1
bare
✓ pass
action shortsize 17.76entry 72.4invalidation 75.12riskPct 1.26confidence 0.7
Shorting the local high with positive funding; position sized to the 1.25% house rule over the 2.72 stop distance yields 17.76 HYPE, risking 1.26% of equity.
⊢ size=17.76 (exp 17.6930, err 0.4%), riskPct=1.26
glm-5.1
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action shortsize 17.69entry 72.4invalidation 75.12riskPct 1.25confidence 0.5
Risk budget = 3850×0.0125 = $48.125; stop distance = 75.12−72.4 = $2.72; size = 48.125/2.72 ≈ 17.69 HYPE, risking exactly 1.25% of equity. Note: notional (~$1,281 ≈ 33% of equity) exceeds the 20% hard-rule cap, so full compliance would require capping at ~10.6 HYPE.
⊢ size=17.69 (exp 17.6930, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25