← FUNDSARENAR5 Reward:Risk Threshold · system_schedule · live

HYPE is consolidating after a sharp rally as bulls eye a continuation breakout. Given: long HYPE — entry 67.16, stop 64.14, target 75.46. You only take trades with reward:risk at least 2. Can you take this trade? Return `rr` and your `action` (long if you take it, flat if you skip).

P&L leak: Taking sub-2 reward:risk trades → negative expectancy over many trades.

Standard answer (code) / baseline
{ "rr": 2.74834437086093, "canTrade": true }
Frozen check
{ "kind": "computable", "predicateRef": "p5_rr", "params": { "rrTol": 0.05 } }
Contestant decisions (18)
claude-opus-4.8
bare
✓ pass
action longentry 67.16invalidation 64.14takeProfit 75.46rr 2.75confidence 0.6
Risk is 3.02 and reward is 8.30, giving R:R of 2.75 which exceeds the 2.0 minimum, so the trade qualifies.
⊢ rr=2.75 (exp 2.75), took=true canTrade=true
claude-opus-4.8
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action longentry 67.16invalidation 64.14takeProfit 75.46rr 2.75confidence 0.6
Risk is 3.02 (67.16-64.14), reward is 8.30 (75.46-67.16), giving R:R of ~2.75 which exceeds the 2.0 minimum, so the trade qualifies.
⊢ rr=2.75 (exp 2.75), took=true canTrade=true
deepseek-v4-pro
bare
✓ pass
action longrr 2.75confidence 0.9
Reward:risk is 2.75, exceeding the minimum 2.0, so trade qualifies.
⊢ rr=2.75 (exp 2.75), took=true canTrade=true
deepseek-v4-pro
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action longrr 2.75confidence 0.5
Reward is $75.46 - $67.16 = $8.30, risk is $67.16 - $64.14 = $3.02, RR = 8.30 / 3.02 ≈ 2.75 ≥ 2. Trade meets the minimum RR rule, so it can be taken.
⊢ rr=2.75 (exp 2.75), took=true canTrade=true
gemini-3.1-pro-preview
bare
✓ pass
action longentry 67.16invalidation 64.14takeProfit 75.46rr 2.748confidence 1
The reward to risk ratio is 2.75, which satisfies the minimum requirement of 2.0.
⊢ rr=2.748 (exp 2.75), took=true canTrade=true
gemini-3.1-pro-preview
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action longentry 67.16invalidation 64.14takeProfit 75.46rr 2.75confidence 1
The reward to risk ratio is 2.75, which satisfies the minimum requirement of 2.0.
⊢ rr=2.75 (exp 2.75), took=true canTrade=true
minimax-m3
bare
✓ pass
action longentry 67.16invalidation 64.14takeProfit 75.46rr 2.75confidence 0.7
Reward 8.30 / risk 3.02 = 2.75R, which meets the >=2 minimum, so the trade is acceptable on R:R grounds.
⊢ rr=2.75 (exp 2.75), took=true canTrade=true
minimax-m3
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action longentry 67.16invalidation 64.14takeProfit 75.46rr 2.75confidence 0.7
Risk = 67.16 - 64.14 = 3.02; Reward = 75.46 - 67.16 = 8.30; R:R = 8.30/3.02 ≈ 2.75, which meets the >= 2 minimum, so the trade is eligible on an R:R basis.
⊢ rr=2.75 (exp 2.75), took=true canTrade=true
gpt-5.5
bare
✓ pass
action longrr 2.75confidence 0.95
Reward is 8.30 versus risk of 3.02, giving an R:R of about 2.75. This meets the minimum requirement of 2, so the trade can be taken.
⊢ rr=2.75 (exp 2.75), took=true canTrade=true
gpt-5.5
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action longrr 2.75confidence 0.8
Reward is 8.30 versus risk of 3.02, giving an RR of about 2.75, which meets the minimum 2:1 requirement.
⊢ rr=2.75 (exp 2.75), took=true canTrade=true
qwen3.7-max
bare
✓ pass
action longentry 67.16invalidation 64.14takeProfit 75.46rr 2.75confidence 0.65
Reward:risk is 8.30/3.02 = 2.75, which exceeds the minimum 2.0 threshold, so the trade qualifies on R:R grounds.
⊢ rr=2.75 (exp 2.75), took=true canTrade=true
qwen3.7-max
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action longentry 67.16invalidation 64.14takeProfit 75.46rr 2.75confidence 0.8
The setup provides a reward-to-risk ratio of approximately 2.75, which satisfies the minimum 2.0 R:R requirement to take the trade.
⊢ rr=2.75 (exp 2.75), took=true canTrade=true
grok-4.3
bare
✓ pass
action longrr 2.75confidence 0.5
⊢ rr=2.75 (exp 2.75), took=true canTrade=true
grok-4.3
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action longrr 2.748confidence 0
⊢ rr=2.748 (exp 2.75), took=true canTrade=true
mimo-v2.5-pro
bare
✓ pass
action longrr 2.73confidence 0.75
Reward:risk is 2.73 (target 75.46, entry 67.16, stop 64.14), exceeding the minimum 2:1 threshold, making the trade eligible.
⊢ rr=2.73 (exp 2.75), took=true canTrade=true
mimo-v2.5-pro
⚡ harness
✗ fail
action flatrr 2.74confidence 0.5
While the reward:risk ratio of 2.74 meets the minimum threshold of 2, the trade lacks a clear directional edge as the market is described as consolidating, which fits the no-edge gate requiring a strong trend and clear signal. Standing flat is the disciplined choice.
⊢ rr=2.74 (exp 2.75), took=false canTrade=true
glm-5.1
bare
✓ pass
action longrr 2.75confidence 0.6
R:R is 8.30/3.02 = 2.75, exceeding the 2.0 minimum threshold, so the trade qualifies.
⊢ rr=2.75 (exp 2.75), took=true canTrade=true
glm-5.1
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action longrr 2.75confidence 0.5
⊢ rr=2.75 (exp 2.75), took=true canTrade=true