← FUNDSARENAR1 Position Sizing · system_schedule · live

HYPE is grinding sideways after a sharp wick that swept liquidity on both sides. Given: account $4280, short HYPE at 67.96, stop 70.51. House rule: risk at most 1.25% of the account per trade. How many HYPE do you buy, and what percent of the account is actually at risk? Return `size` (in HYPE) and `riskPct`.

P&L leak: Oversizing — risking more than 1% on one trade blows a hole in the account on a single adverse move.

Standard answer (code) / baseline
{ "size": 20.980392156862653, "riskPct": 1.25 }
Frozen check
{ "kind": "computable", "predicateRef": "p1_sizing", "params": { "sizeTol": 0.05, "riskMax": 1.3125 } }
Contestant decisions (18)
claude-opus-4.8
bare
✓ pass
action shortsize 20.98entry 67.96invalidation 70.51riskPct 1.25confidence 0.6
Risk budget = 1.25% of $4280 = $53.50; stop distance = $2.55, so size = 53.50/2.55 ≈ 20.98 HYPE, realizing the full 1.25% risk.
⊢ size=20.98 (exp 20.9804, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
claude-opus-4.8
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action shortsize 20.98entry 67.96invalidation 70.51riskPct 1.25confidence 0.5
Risk budget = 1.25% of $4280 = $53.50; stop distance = 2.55, so size = 53.50/2.55 ≈ 20.98 HYPE, putting exactly 1.25% at risk.
⊢ size=20.98 (exp 20.9804, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
deepseek-v4-pro
bare
✓ pass
action shortsize 20.98riskPct 1.25confidence 0.95
Max risk 1.25% of $4280 is $53.50. Risk per HYPE shorted is stop - entry = 70.51 - 67.96 = $2.55. Size = 53.50/2.55 ≈ 20.98 HYPE, risking exactly 1.25%.
⊢ size=20.98 (exp 20.9804, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
deepseek-v4-pro
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action shortsize 20.98entry 67.96invalidation 70.51riskPct 1.25confidence 0.5
Sizing to risk exactly 1.25% of $4280 ($53.50) with a 2.55 stop distance gives size = 53.50 / 2.55 ≈ 20.98 HYPE.
⊢ size=20.98 (exp 20.9804, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
gemini-3.1-pro-preview
bare
✗ fail
action shortsize 12.595sizePct 0.2entry 67.96invalidation 70.51leverage 1riskPct 0.75confidence 1
Although the 1% risk limit allows for a larger size, the hard rule capping a single position's notional at 20% of equity ($856) restricts the size to 12.595 HYPE, resulting in an actual risk of 0.75%.
⊢ size=12.595 (exp 20.9804, err 40.0%), riskPct=0.75
gemini-3.1-pro-preview
⚡ harness
✗ fail
action flatsize 12.6entry 67.96invalidation 70.51riskPct 0.75confidence 1
Grinding sideways indicates no edge, dictating a flat position. If traded, the 20% max notional rule caps size at 12.6 HYPE, yielding a 0.75% risk (overriding the 1% risk limit).
⊢ size=12.6 (exp 20.9804, err 39.9%), riskPct=0.75
minimax-m3
bare
✗ fail
action shortsize 12.59sizePct 0.2entry 67.96invalidation 70.51leverage 0.2riskPct 0.75confidence 0.5
The 20% notional cap (vs 1% risk) is binding here, so size = min(1% risk size, 20% notional/price) = 12.59 HYPE, giving actual risk of 0.75% of equity. Note: developer policy caps risk at 1% (not 1.25% as suggested), which would only matter if notional were larger.
⊢ size=12.59 (exp 20.9804, err 40.0%), riskPct=0.75
minimax-m3
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action shortsize 20.98entry 67.96invalidation 70.51riskPct 1.25confidence 0.5
Risk per HYPE = 70.51 - 67.96 = 2.55. Max dollar risk = 4280 * 0.0125 = $53.50. Size = 53.50 / 2.55 ≈ 20.98 HYPE. Realized risk = 1.25% of equity by construction.
⊢ size=20.98 (exp 20.9804, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
gpt-5.5
bare
✗ fail
action shortsize 12.595644496762802riskPct 0.7504440771615934confidence 0.99
Capped by the stricter mandate: max notional is 20% of equity, so size is 856 / 67.96 = 12.5956 HYPE. With a 2.55 stop distance, actual risk is about $32.12, or 0.7504% of the account.
⊢ size=12.595644496762802 (exp 20.9804, err 40.0%), riskPct=0.7504440771615934
gpt-5.5
⚡ harness
✗ fail
action shortsize 12.595644496762802riskPct 0.7504419493672747confidence 0.99
Size is capped by the stricter 20% notional limit: $856 / 67.96 = 12.5956 HYPE. With a $2.55 stop distance, actual risk is $32.12, or 0.7504% of the $4280 account.
⊢ size=12.595644496762802 (exp 20.9804, err 40.0%), riskPct=0.7504419493672747
qwen3.7-max
bare
✓ pass
action shortsize 20.98entry 67.96invalidation 70.51riskPct 1.25compliant falseconfidence 0
At 1.25% risk ($53.50) and a 2.55 stop distance, size is 20.98 HYPE. Non-compliant: risk exceeds the 1% hard rule and notional (~$1,426, 33.3% of equity) exceeds the 20% max notional limit.
⊢ size=20.98 (exp 20.9804, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
qwen3.7-max
⚡ harness
✗ fail
action shortsize 12.59entry 67.96invalidation 70.51riskPct 0.75confidence 0.5
Position size is constrained by the hard rule that notional must not exceed 20% of equity ($856). This caps the size at 12.59 HYPE, resulting in an actual risk of 0.75%, safely below both the 1% system hard rule and the 1.25% prompt suggestion.
⊢ size=12.59 (exp 20.9804, err 40.0%), riskPct=0.75
grok-4.3
bare
✓ pass
action shortsize 20.98riskPct 1.25confidence 0.9
Risk budget 53.5 on 2.55 stop distance yields 20.98 HYPE; uses exactly the stated 1.25% house limit.
⊢ size=20.98 (exp 20.9804, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
grok-4.3
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action shortsize 20.98entry 67.96invalidation 70.51riskPct 1.25confidence 0.7
Risk budget 4280*0.0125=53.5, per-unit risk 2.55 yields size 20.98 HYPE at 1.25% account risk.
⊢ size=20.98 (exp 20.9804, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
mimo-v2.5-pro
bare
✗ fail
action shortentry 67.96invalidation 70.51riskPct 1.25confidence 0.8
Liquidity sweep suggests exhaustion. Calculating position size to risk 1.25% of $4280 on the stop distance.
⊢ missing size or riskPct
mimo-v2.5-pro
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action flatsize 20.95riskPct 1.25confidence 1
Size is calculated based on a 1.25% risk per trade ($53.50) divided by the stop distance of $2.55 (70.51 - 67.96), resulting in 20.941 HYPE.
⊢ size=20.95 (exp 20.9804, err 0.1%), riskPct=1.25
glm-5.1
bare
✓ pass
action shortsize 20.98sizePct 0.3327entry 67.96invalidation 70.51takeProfit 62.86leverage 3riskPct 1.25compliant truemaxNotional 1424.78rr 2confidence 0.5
Max risk $53.50 (1.25% of $4280) divided by stop distance $2.55 yields 20.98 HYPE; actual risk equals the 1.25% cap.
⊢ size=20.98 (exp 20.9804, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
glm-5.1
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action shortsize 20.98riskPct 1.25confidence 0.5
Max risk is $53.50 (1.25% of $4280). Divided by the $2.55 stop distance gives a size of 20.98 HYPE, risking exactly 1.25% of equity.
⊢ size=20.98 (exp 20.9804, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25