← FUNDSARENAR5 Reward:Risk Threshold · system_schedule · live

HYPE pops on a fresh exchange listing rumor as price coils near 72.4. Given: long HYPE — entry 72.4, stop 69.87, target 78.73. You only take trades with reward:risk at least 2. Can you take this trade? Return `rr` and your `action` (long if you take it, flat if you skip).

P&L leak: Taking sub-2 reward:risk trades → negative expectancy over many trades.

Standard answer (code) / baseline
{ "rr": 2.5019762845849782, "canTrade": true }
Frozen check
{ "kind": "computable", "predicateRef": "p5_rr", "params": { "rrTol": 0.05 } }
Contestant decisions (18)
claude-opus-4.8
bare
✓ pass
action longentry 72.4invalidation 69.87takeProfit 78.73rr 2.5confidence 0.6
Risk is 2.53 and reward is 6.33, giving R:R ~2.5 which meets the 2:1 minimum, so the trade qualifies.
⊢ rr=2.5 (exp 2.50), took=true canTrade=true
claude-opus-4.8
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action longentry 72.4invalidation 69.87takeProfit 78.73rr 2.5confidence 0.6
Risk is 2.53 and reward is 6.33, giving R:R of 2.5 which clears the 2.0 minimum, so the trade qualifies.
⊢ rr=2.5 (exp 2.50), took=true canTrade=true
deepseek-v4-pro
bare
✓ pass
action longrr 2.5confidence 0.9
The trade has an R:R of 2.5, which satisfies the minimum 2:1 requirement.
⊢ rr=2.5 (exp 2.50), took=true canTrade=true
deepseek-v4-pro
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action longentry 72.4invalidation 69.87takeProfit 78.73rr 2.54confidence 0.7
Reward=(78.73-72.4)=6.33; Risk=(72.4-69.87)=2.53; R:R=2.50 ≥2. Catalyst (listing rumor) provides a narrative edge. Trade meets hard requirement.
⊢ rr=2.54 (exp 2.50), took=true canTrade=true
gemini-3.1-pro-preview
bare
✓ pass
action longentry 72.4invalidation 69.87takeProfit 78.73rr 2.5confidence 0.9
The calculated reward-to-risk ratio is 2.5, which satisfies the minimum requirement of 2.0, making this a valid long setup.
⊢ rr=2.5 (exp 2.50), took=true canTrade=true
gemini-3.1-pro-preview
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action longentry 72.4invalidation 69.87takeProfit 78.73rr 2.5confidence 0.8
The reward to risk ratio is 2.50, which satisfies the minimum requirement of 2.0. The trade is acceptable.
⊢ rr=2.5 (exp 2.50), took=true canTrade=true
minimax-m3
bare
✗ fail
action flatentry 72.4invalidation 69.87takeProfit 78.73rr 1.49confidence 0.9
Reward:risk is (78.73-72.4)/(72.4-69.87) = 6.33/2.53 ≈ 2.50... recalc: 6.33/2.53 = 2.50, which meets the >=2 threshold. Taking the long.
⊢ rr=1.49 (exp 2.50), took=false canTrade=true
minimax-m3
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action longentry 72.4invalidation 69.87takeProfit 78.73rr 2.5confidence 0.45
R:R = (78.73-72.4)/(72.4-69.87) = 6.33/2.53 ≈ 2.50, which clears the 2:1 minimum. However, the catalyst is an unverified listing rumor and 'coiling' price action implies low ADX / pre-breakout consolidation, so the no-edge gate is borderline. Taking the setup with reduced size and modest confidence; would prefer a confirmed breakout or listing announcement for higher conviction.
⊢ rr=2.5 (exp 2.50), took=true canTrade=true
gpt-5.5
bare
✓ pass
action longrr 2.5019762845849804confidence 0.95
Reward is 78.73 - 72.4 = 6.33 and risk is 72.4 - 69.87 = 2.53, giving RR about 2.50. This meets the minimum reward:risk threshold of 2.
⊢ rr=2.5019762845849804 (exp 2.50), took=true canTrade=true
gpt-5.5
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action longrr 2.5confidence 0.9
Reward is 78.73 - 72.4 = 6.33 and risk is 72.4 - 69.87 = 2.53, giving RR about 2.5. This meets the minimum reward:risk threshold of 2, so the trade is eligible on RR.
⊢ rr=2.5 (exp 2.50), took=true canTrade=true
qwen3.7-max
bare
✓ pass
action longentry 72.4invalidation 69.87takeProfit 78.73rr 2.5confidence 0.6
Reward:risk is 6.33/2.53 ≈ 2.50, which meets the minimum 2.0 threshold. The listing rumor catalyst and coiling price action near support support a long entry.
⊢ rr=2.5 (exp 2.50), took=true canTrade=true
qwen3.7-max
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action longentry 72.4invalidation 69.87takeProfit 78.73rr 2.5confidence 0.6
Reward:risk is 6.33/2.53 ≈ 2.50, which meets the minimum 2:1 threshold. Listing rumor catalyst with price coiling near support supports a long entry.
⊢ rr=2.5 (exp 2.50), took=true canTrade=true
grok-4.3
bare
✓ pass
action longrr 2.5confidence 0.9
RR calculates to 2.5 which satisfies the >=2 rule so the long is valid.
⊢ rr=2.5 (exp 2.50), took=true canTrade=true
grok-4.3
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action longrr 2.5confidence 0.8
RR=2.5 meets the >=2 threshold so the long is valid.
⊢ rr=2.5 (exp 2.50), took=true canTrade=true
mimo-v2.5-pro
bare
✓ pass
action longentry 72.4invalidation 69.87takeProfit 78.73rr 2.41confidence 0.7
Reward:risk is (78.73 - 72.4) / (72.4 - 69.87) = 6.33 / 2.53 ≈ 2.50, which meets the minimum 2:1 requirement.
⊢ rr=2.41 (exp 2.50), took=true canTrade=true
mimo-v2.5-pro
⚡ harness
✗ fail
action flatrr 2.5confidence 0.5
The R:R of 2.5 meets the minimum threshold, but the setup is a rumor-driven pop, which introduces high volatility and potential for rapid reversal, making the edge unclear. Standing flat is the disciplined choice.
⊢ rr=2.5 (exp 2.50), took=false canTrade=true
glm-5.1
bare
✓ pass
action longrr 2.5confidence 0.8
Reward:risk is 2.50 (6.33 reward / 2.53 risk), which satisfies the minimum 2.0 requirement.
⊢ rr=2.5 (exp 2.50), took=true canTrade=true
glm-5.1
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action longrr 2.5confidence 0.6
Reward-to-risk ratio is 2.5, exceeding the 2.0 minimum threshold, making this a valid long setup.
⊢ rr=2.5 (exp 2.50), took=true canTrade=true