← FUNDSARENAR1 Position Sizing · system_schedule · live

SOL is grinding higher as Solana DeFi volumes hit a new monthly peak. Given: account $3850, short SOL at 73.81, stop 77.13. House rule: risk at most 1.25% of the account per trade. How many SOL do you buy, and what percent of the account is actually at risk? Return `size` (in SOL) and `riskPct`.

P&L leak: Oversizing — risking more than 1% on one trade blows a hole in the account on a single adverse move.

Standard answer (code) / baseline
{ "size": 14.495481927710873, "riskPct": 1.25 }
Frozen check
{ "kind": "computable", "predicateRef": "p1_sizing", "params": { "sizeTol": 0.05, "riskMax": 1.3125 } }
Contestant decisions (18)
claude-opus-4.8
bare
✓ pass
action shortsize 14.5entry 73.81invalidation 77.13riskPct 1.25confidence 0.5
Risk budget = 1.25% of $3850 = $48.13; stop distance = $3.32, so size = 48.13/3.32 ≈ 14.5 SOL, putting ~1.25% of equity at risk. Note: rising DeFi volumes and grinding higher price argue against shorting.
⊢ size=14.5 (exp 14.4955, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
claude-opus-4.8
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action shortsize 14.49entry 73.81invalidation 77.13riskPct 1.25confidence 0.4
Risk budget 1.25% of $3850 = $48.13; stop distance $3.32 gives ~14.49 SOL, risking the full 1.25%. Note: shorting against a bullish DeFi-volume grind is countertrend, so conviction is low.
⊢ size=14.49 (exp 14.4955, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
deepseek-v4-pro
bare
✓ pass
action shortsize 14.495riskPct 1.25confidence 0.5
Risk per SOL = 3.32. Max risk 48.125 yields 14.495 SOL, risking exactly 1.25% of equity.
⊢ size=14.495 (exp 14.4955, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
deepseek-v4-pro
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action shortsize 14entry 73.81invalidation 77.13riskPct 1.207confidence 1
Risk per SOL = 77.13 - 73.81 = 3.32. Max risk = 1.25% of $3850 = $48.125. Max size = 48.125 / 3.32 ≈ 14.495. Rounding down to 14 SOL gives actual risk $46.48, which is 1.207% of equity.
⊢ size=14 (exp 14.4955, err 3.4%), riskPct=1.207
gemini-3.1-pro-preview
bare
✗ fail
action flatsize 10.432riskPct 0.9confidence 1
Shorting into a bullish trend lacks edge, so I stand flat. If executed, the 1% hard risk limit and 20% notional cap would restrict the size to 10.43 SOL, risking 0.90% of equity.
⊢ size=10.432 (exp 14.4955, err 28.0%), riskPct=0.9
gemini-3.1-pro-preview
⚡ harness
✗ fail
action shortsize 10.43sizePct 0.2entry 73.81invalidation 77.13riskPct 0.9confidence 1
Although the house rule suggests 1.25% risk, the hard mandate limits risk to 1% and notional to 20%. Capping notional at $770 limits the size to 10.43 SOL, resulting in an actual risk of 0.90%.
⊢ size=10.43 (exp 14.4955, err 28.0%), riskPct=0.9
minimax-m3
bare
✓ pass
action shortsize 14.5entry 73.81invalidation 77.13riskPct 1.25confidence 0.7
Sized to the stated 1.25% house rule: stop distance = 77.13 − 73.81 = $3.32/SOL; size = (0.0125 × $3,850) / $3.32 ≈ 14.50 SOL, putting exactly $48.14 (1.25% of equity) at risk. Note: this breaches the 1% mandate cap (mandate size ≈ 11.60 SOL, 1.00% risk) and the notional ≈ $1,070 is ~28% of equity, above the 20% mandate cap.
⊢ size=14.5 (exp 14.4955, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
minimax-m3
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action shortsize 14.5entry 73.81invalidation 77.13riskPct 1.25confidence 0.5
Position size = (3850 × 0.0125) / (77.13 − 73.81) = 48.125 / 3.32 ≈ 14.50 SOL, so the stop-out risks exactly 1.25% of equity (~$48.13). Note: the resulting notional (14.50 × 73.81 ≈ $1,070) is ~27.8% of equity, which breaches the standing 20% notional cap — the risk rule and the notional cap conflict here, and the notional cap would be the binding constraint.
⊢ size=14.5 (exp 14.4955, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
gpt-5.5
bare
✗ fail
action shortsize 10.43219riskPct 0.8996confidence 0.95
Stop distance is 3.32 SOL; the mandate caps risk at 1% and notional at 20% of equity. The 20% notional cap is binding, so size is 770 / 73.81 = 10.43219 SOL, risking about 0.8996% of equity.
⊢ size=10.43219 (exp 14.4955, err 28.0%), riskPct=0.8996
gpt-5.5
⚡ harness
✗ fail
action shortsize 10.43219076riskPct 0.89960882confidence 0.5
Size is capped by the mandate's 20% max notional rule before the risk limit: $770 / $73.81 = 10.43219076 SOL. With a $3.32 stop distance, actual risk is about $34.63, or 0.8996% of the account.
⊢ size=10.43219076 (exp 14.4955, err 28.0%), riskPct=0.89960882
qwen3.7-max
bare
✗ fail
action shortsize 11.596entry 73.81invalidation 77.13riskPct 1compliant trueconfidence 0.8
Hard mandate strictly caps risk at 1% of equity, overriding the suggested 1.25% house rule. Size is $38.50 risk divided by $3.32 stop distance.
⊢ size=11.596 (exp 14.4955, err 20.0%), riskPct=1
qwen3.7-max
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action flatsize 14.5riskPct 1.25compliant falseconfidence 0
Pure calculation: 1.25% of $3850 = $48.125 risk; $48.125 / $3.32 stop distance = 14.50 SOL. Marked non-compliant because 1.25% exceeds the 1% hard risk cap, and shorting SOL against rising DeFi volumes offers no edge.
⊢ size=14.5 (exp 14.4955, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
grok-4.3
bare
✓ pass
action shortsize 14.5riskPct 1.25confidence 0.9
Risk budget 1.25% of 3850 is 48.125 USD; 3.32 USD risk per SOL yields size of 14.5 SOL at exactly 1.25% account risk.
⊢ size=14.5 (exp 14.4955, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
grok-4.3
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action shortsize 14.5riskPct 1.25confidence 0
⊢ size=14.5 (exp 14.4955, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
mimo-v2.5-pro
bare
✗ fail
action flatsize 4.575riskPct 1.25confidence 1
The position is already short; buying SOL would close the position. The calculation for risk size is: ($3850 * 0.0125) / ($77.13 - $73.81) = 4.575 SOL, with a realized risk of 1.25% of equity.
⊢ size=4.575 (exp 14.4955, err 68.4%), riskPct=1.25
mimo-v2.5-pro
⚡ harness
✗ fail
action flatentry 73.81invalidation 77.13confidence 0.2
The question asks for a calculation on a short SOL position, but the news context (DeFi volumes hitting new monthly peak) and the price action (grinding higher) suggest a strong bullish momentum and fundamental tailwind. Taking a short in this environment goes against the trend, violating the core discipline of 'stand flat when there is no edge' or when the trend is clearly against the intended position. Therefore, I would not take this trade. However, to answer the calculation part for completeness: risk per SOL = 77.13 - 73.81 = 3.32. Account risk allowed = 1.25% of $3850 = $48.125. Size = $48.125 / 3.32 ≈ 14.50 SOL. Actual risk percent would be 1.25%.
⊢ missing size or riskPct
glm-5.1
bare
— no answer
no answer
glm-5.1
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action flatsize 14.49riskPct 1.25confidence 0
Calculated size is 14.49 SOL risking 1.25% of equity, but shorting an asset that is grinding higher with strong fundamental catalysts violates the no-edge gate; standing flat.
⊢ size=14.49 (exp 14.4955, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25