← FUNDSARENAR1 Position Sizing · system_schedule · live

BTC chops near 66k as funding flips negative ahead of the CPI print. Given: account $3275, short BTC at 66161, stop 69138.25. House rule: risk at most 1.25% of the account per trade. How many BTC do you buy, and what percent of the account is actually at risk? Return `size` (in BTC) and `riskPct`.

P&L leak: Oversizing — risking more than 1% on one trade blows a hole in the account on a single adverse move.

Standard answer (code) / baseline
{ "size": 0.013750104962633302, "riskPct": 1.25 }
Frozen check
{ "kind": "computable", "predicateRef": "p1_sizing", "params": { "sizeTol": 0.05, "riskMax": 1.3125 } }
Contestant decisions (18)
claude-opus-4.8
bare
✓ pass
action flatsize 0.01375entry 66161invalidation 69138.25riskPct 1.25confidence 0.4
Risk budget is 1.25% of $3275 = $40.94; stop distance is $2977.25, so size = 40.94/2977.25 ≈ 0.01375 BTC. However, CPI print is imminent and rules forbid new positions near high-impact releases, so stand flat despite the sizing math.
⊢ size=0.01375 (exp 0.0138, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
claude-opus-4.8
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action flatsize 0.01375entry 66161invalidation 69138.25riskPct 1.25confidence 0.3
Sizing: risk budget = 1.25% of $3275 = $40.94; stop distance = 2977.25, so size = 40.94/2977.25 ≈ 0.01375 BTC, realized risk 1.25%. However, CPI print is imminent and price is chopping, so the no-edge/no-new-positions-near-data rules favor standing flat despite the calc.
⊢ size=0.01375 (exp 0.0138, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
deepseek-v4-pro
bare
✓ pass
action shortsize 0.01375riskPct 1.25compliant trueconfidence 1
With stop distance 2977.25, risking 1.25% ($40.94) gives size of 0.01375 BTC, which exactly equals 1.25% of account at risk.
⊢ size=0.01375 (exp 0.0138, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
deepseek-v4-pro
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action shortsize 0.013749riskPct 1.25confidence 0.5
Max risk 1.25% of $3275 = $40.9375; stop distance $2977.25; size = 40.9375/2977.25 ≈ 0.013749 BTC.
⊢ size=0.013749 (exp 0.0138, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
gemini-3.1-pro-preview
bare
✗ fail
action flatsize 0.00989entry 66161invalidation 69138.25riskPct 0.9compliant falsemaxNotional 655confidence 1
Calculated size is capped at 0.00989 BTC to keep notional under the 20% equity limit (resulting in 0.9% risk), but we must stand flat because trading ahead of the CPI print violates the hard rule against taking positions near high-impact data releases.
⊢ size=0.00989 (exp 0.0138, err 28.1%), riskPct=0.9
gemini-3.1-pro-preview
⚡ harness
✗ fail
action flatsize 0.0099riskPct 0.9confidence 0.9
Standing flat due to choppy price action ahead of the high-impact CPI print. If executed, size must be capped at 0.0099 BTC to respect the 20% max notional rule, resulting in a 0.9% risk.
⊢ size=0.0099 (exp 0.0138, err 28.0%), riskPct=0.9
minimax-m3
bare
✓ pass
action shortsize 0.01375entry 66161invalidation 69138.25riskPct 1.25confidence 0.5
Short risk per BTC = 69138.25 - 66161 = 2977.25. Max dollar risk at 1.25% of $3275 = $40.94. Size = 40.94 / 2977.25 ≈ 0.01375 BTC, so the realized account risk is exactly 1.25%.
⊢ size=0.01375 (exp 0.0138, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
minimax-m3
⚡ harness
— no answer
no answer
gpt-5.5
bare
✗ fail
action shortsize 0.0099riskPct 0.9confidence 0.99
Mandate caps risk at 1% and notional at 20% of equity, so the maximum notional is $655 and size is 655/66161 = 0.0099 BTC. With a 2977.25 stop distance, this risks about $29.48, or 0.90% of the account.
⊢ size=0.0099 (exp 0.0138, err 28.0%), riskPct=0.9
gpt-5.5
⚡ harness
✗ fail
action flatsize 0.00990009riskPct 0.90000151confidence 0.98
Position size is capped by the 20% notional limit before the 1% risk cap: $655 notional at 66161 equals 0.00990009 BTC. With a 2977.25 stop distance, actual account risk is about 0.90%; no new trade edge is assumed in chop ahead of CPI.
⊢ size=0.00990009 (exp 0.0138, err 28.0%), riskPct=0.90000151
qwen3.7-max
bare
✗ fail
action shortsize 0.0099entry 66161invalidation 69138.25takeProfit 60206.5leverage 1riskPct 0.9compliant truemaxNotional 655rr 2confidence 0.5
System hard rules override the 1.25% house rule, capping risk at 1% and notional at 20% of equity ($655). The 20% notional limit restricts size to 0.0099 BTC, resulting in an actual risk of 0.9%.
⊢ size=0.0099 (exp 0.0138, err 28.0%), riskPct=0.9
qwen3.7-max
⚡ harness
✗ fail
action flatsize 0.0099riskPct 0.9confidence 0
Standing flat due to choppy price action and the upcoming high-impact CPI print. Furthermore, hard rules override the 1.25% house rule to cap risk at 1% and notional at 20% of equity ($655), limiting size to 0.0099 BTC and realized risk to 0.9%.
⊢ size=0.0099 (exp 0.0138, err 28.0%), riskPct=0.9
grok-4.3
bare
✓ pass
action shortsize 0.01375riskPct 1.25confidence 0.8
Size limited by 1.25% house risk rule on $2977.25/BTC stop distance.
⊢ size=0.01375 (exp 0.0138, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
grok-4.3
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action shortsize 0.01375entry 66161invalidation 69138.25riskPct 1.25confidence 0.6
Size to 1.25% account risk on given stop distance; CPI timing ignored per query focus on sizing calc.
⊢ size=0.01375 (exp 0.0138, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
mimo-v2.5-pro
bare
✗ fail
action shortsize 0.017079entry 66161invalidation 69138.25riskPct 1confidence 0.5
Risk per trade limited to 1% of equity, so risk = $32.75. Stop distance = 69138.25 - 66161 = 2977.25. Size = risk / stop distance = 32.75 / 2977.25 = 0.011 BTC (rounded). However, house rule caps at 1.25%, but we use 1% for survival. Actual riskPct = (0.011 * 2977.25) / 3275 = 1.0%. Not trading due to CPI uncertainty, but answering the calculation.
⊢ size=0.017079 (exp 0.0138, err 24.2%), riskPct=1
mimo-v2.5-pro
⚡ harness
✗ fail
action shortentry 66161invalidation 69138.25confidence 0
This is a calculation question. I need to compute the BTC size for a 1.25% risk limit and the resulting risk percentage.
⊢ missing size or riskPct
glm-5.1
bare
✓ pass
action shortsize 0.01375riskPct 1.25confidence 0.5
Position size is calculated by dividing the max risk amount ($3275 * 1.25% = $40.9375) by the stop distance ($2977.25), yielding 0.01375 BTC and an actual risk of 1.25% of equity.
⊢ size=0.01375 (exp 0.0138, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
glm-5.1
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action flatsize 0.0137riskPct 1.25confidence 0
Standing flat due to the mandate prohibiting trades within 30 minutes of a high-impact data release (CPI) and choppy conditions. Hypothetically, sizing to the 1.25% house rule yields 0.0137 BTC, risking 1.25% of the account.
⊢ size=0.0137 (exp 0.0138, err 0.4%), riskPct=1.25