← FUNDSARENAR1 Position Sizing · system_schedule · live

HYPE consolidates near resistance as funding flips positive, tempting late longs. Given: account $3275, short HYPE at 67.16, stop 70.18. House rule: risk at most 1.25% of the account per trade. How many HYPE do you buy, and what percent of the account is actually at risk? Return `size` (in HYPE) and `riskPct`.

P&L leak: Oversizing — risking more than 1% on one trade blows a hole in the account on a single adverse move.

Standard answer (code) / baseline
{ "size": 13.555463576158894, "riskPct": 1.25 }
Frozen check
{ "kind": "computable", "predicateRef": "p1_sizing", "params": { "sizeTol": 0.05, "riskMax": 1.3125 } }
Contestant decisions (18)
claude-opus-4.8
bare
✓ pass
action shortsize 13.55entry 67.16invalidation 70.18takeProfit 61.12riskPct 1.25confidence 0.6
Risk budget = 1.25% of $3275 = $40.94; stop distance = 3.02, so size = 40.94/3.02 ≈ 13.55 HYPE, risking ~1.25% of account.
⊢ size=13.55 (exp 13.5555, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
claude-opus-4.8
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action shortsize 13.55entry 67.16invalidation 70.18takeProfit 61.12riskPct 1.25confidence 0.6
Risk budget = 1.25% of $3275 = $40.94; stop distance = $3.02, so size = 40.94/3.02 ≈ 13.55 HYPE, putting exactly 1.25% at risk on a short into resistance with funding-trap setup.
⊢ size=13.55 (exp 13.5555, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
deepseek-v4-pro
bare
✓ pass
action shortsize 13.5555riskPct 1.25confidence 1
Risk per HYPE is 3.02. Max risk $40.9375 gives size 13.5555 HYPE, risking exactly 1.25% of account.
⊢ size=13.5555 (exp 13.5555, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
deepseek-v4-pro
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action shortsize 13.55546357615894riskPct 1.25confidence 0.5
Max size = account * 0.0125 / (stop - entry) = 40.9375 / 3.02 ≈ 13.556 HYPE, risking exactly 1.25%.
⊢ size=13.55546357615894 (exp 13.5555, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
gemini-3.1-pro-preview
bare
✗ fail
action shortsize 9.75entry 67.16invalidation 70.18riskPct 0.899confidence 1
Position size is capped by the hard rule of 20% maximum notional per position ($655), which overrides the risk limit and results in 9.75 HYPE with 0.899% actual risk.
⊢ size=9.75 (exp 13.5555, err 28.1%), riskPct=0.899
gemini-3.1-pro-preview
⚡ harness
✗ fail
action shortsize 9.75entry 67.16invalidation 70.18riskPct 0.9confidence 1
Hard rules cap risk at 1% and notional at 20%. The 20% notional limit ($655) restricts the size to 9.75 HYPE, resulting in an actual risk of 0.9%.
⊢ size=9.75 (exp 13.5555, err 28.1%), riskPct=0.9
minimax-m3
bare
✓ pass
action shortsize 13.56entry 67.16invalidation 70.18riskPct 1.25compliant falseconfidence 0.5
Size = (0.0125 × $3275) / ($70.18 − $67.16) = $40.94 / 3.02 ≈ 13.56 HYPE, risking 1.25% of equity. Notional ≈ $910.69 ≈ 27.8% of equity. Non-compliant on two counts: 1.25% risk exceeds the 1% system mandate, and notional 27.8% breaches the 20% per-position cap. Within system limits, max size ≈ 9.75 HYPE (notional $655) with risk ≈ 0.90%.
⊢ size=13.56 (exp 13.5555, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
minimax-m3
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action shortsize 13.56entry 67.16invalidation 70.18riskPct 1.25confidence 0.5
Position size calculated as (Account × Risk%) / Stop Distance = ($3275 × 1.25%) / (70.18 - 67.16) = $40.94 / 3.02 ≈ 13.56 HYPE. Risk is 1.25% of account.
⊢ size=13.56 (exp 13.5555, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
gpt-5.5
bare
✗ fail
action shortsize 9.7528riskPct 0.8993confidence 0.98
Stop distance is 3.02, but sizing is capped by the mandate's 20% max notional: $655 / 67.16 = 9.7528 HYPE. That position risks about $29.45, or 0.8993% of the $3275 account.
⊢ size=9.7528 (exp 13.5555, err 28.1%), riskPct=0.8993
gpt-5.5
⚡ harness
✗ fail
action shortsize 9.7528290649riskPct 0.899345confidence 0.7
Size is capped by the mandate's 20% max notional limit: $655 / 67.16 = 9.7528 HYPE. With a $3.02 stop distance, actual risk is about 0.899% of equity.
⊢ size=9.7528290649 (exp 13.5555, err 28.1%), riskPct=0.899345
qwen3.7-max
bare
✗ fail
action shortsize 9.75entry 67.16invalidation 70.18riskPct 0.9confidence 0.6
Short HYPE at resistance with positive funding suggesting crowded longs; position capped by the 20% notional limit (655 USD) since 1% risk would exceed it, yielding 9.75 HYPE and 0.90% actual risk.
⊢ size=9.75 (exp 13.5555, err 28.1%), riskPct=0.9
qwen3.7-max
⚡ harness
✗ fail
action shortsize 10.84entry 67.16invalidation 70.18riskPct 1confidence 0.5
Hard rule caps risk at 1% (overriding the 1.25% house rule). Size = $32.75 risk / $3.02 stop distance = 10.84 HYPE. Note: resulting notional ~$728 is ~22.2% of equity, breaching the 20% notional cap; live execution should further reduce size to ~9.75 HYPE.
⊢ size=10.84 (exp 13.5555, err 20.0%), riskPct=1
grok-4.3
bare
✓ pass
action shortsize 13.56entry 67.16invalidation 70.18riskPct 1.25confidence 0.8
Size = (0.0125*3275)/3.02 rounded to two decimals; risk exactly at house-rule limit.
⊢ size=13.56 (exp 13.5555, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
grok-4.3
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action shortsize 13.56riskPct 1.25confidence 0
⊢ size=13.56 (exp 13.5555, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
mimo-v2.5-pro
bare
✗ fail
action shortentry 67.16invalidation 70.18confidence 0.7
Consolidation at resistance with positive funding creates a high-probability short setup, but the wide stop risks 1.53% which violates the 1.25% house rule.
⊢ missing size or riskPct
mimo-v2.5-pro
⚡ harness
✗ fail
action flatsize 135.13513513513513riskPct 1.25confidence 0
The user's question is a pure calculation: given a short entry at 67.16 and a stop at 70.18, with a maximum risk of 1.25% on an account of $3275, the position size is 135.14 HYPE, risking exactly 1.25% of equity. The market context (consolidation, positive funding) suggests no clear edge, so the action is flat (do not trade).
⊢ size=135.13513513513513 (exp 13.5555, err 896.9%), riskPct=1.25
glm-5.1
bare
✓ pass
action shortsize 13.5588entry 67.16invalidation 70.18riskPct 1.25confidence 0.5
Position size calculated by dividing the 1.25% account risk allowance ($40.94) by the stop distance ($3.02), resulting in 1.25% of equity being at risk.
⊢ size=13.5588 (exp 13.5555, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
glm-5.1
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action shortsize 13.56riskPct 1.25confidence 0.8
Size calculated as (3275 * 0.0125) / (70.18 - 67.16) = 13.56 HYPE, risking exactly 1.25% of the account.
⊢ size=13.56 (exp 13.5555, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25